Uncertainty going into a WASDE has rarely been this large. In a continuing search for clues, the quiver keeps coming up empty. The known metrics of history indicate that the planting date can have an impact on yield, but it is just one variable and not a conclusive one. Looking this time at crop condition, isolating a single variable as the determinant of the final outcome is also problematic. Without doubt, the amount of soybeans and corn rated good to excellent is well below that of recent years (see graph below).

The crop condition reports in August have risen or fallen as the weeks progressed, but the month has generally reflected the final rating. There are of course outliers, though. The 2017 corn crop was rated 62 percent good/ex...