Market Commentary: Grains Firm, Soybeans Pull Back Heading into Holidays
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the holiday-shortened trading week with wheat leading the way on short-covering and despite the surging U.S. dollar. Corn followed the wheat market higher with its own support from the strong export program as USDA reported more “flash” export sales Monday. S...
Two Big Things; Trumpenomics
Two Big ThingsJust days before Christmas 2024, two big things happened that impact U.S. agriculture. On their way home for the holidays, members of the U.S. Congress passed a one-year extension of the farm bill. Farm groups were disappointed for a number of reasons, including the fact that expa...
Government Shutdown Averted; Process Provides Insights into 2025 Policy Making
A government shutdown was averted after frenetic eleventh-hour action last week in Congress to pass a continuing resolution, which is a short-term appropriations bill that extends the existing baseline level of funding. Under the terms of a previous CR passed on 25 September, the federal govern...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WheatOver the past seven days, the lack of rain allowed a 12.2-percentage-point increase in Argentina’s wheat harvest progress, which reached 76.1 percent of the area. Harvesting activities have focused on central and western Buenos Aires Province. Meanwhile, wheat commercialization and truck a...
European Market Analysis
Regional News On Monday morning, Russia announced that its 15 February – 30 June 2025 wheat export quota will be 10.6 MMT, slightly below the 11.0 MMT announced at the EEU meeting last month. Milling Wheat Global wheat markets continue to see pressure from slowing U.S. exports an...
Total versus Change in Pork Consumption
China is by far the world’s largest consumer of pork, eating over half the world’s supply. This also drives feed demand and this grain supply destruction. However, its per capita consumption is lower than many other large pork producing countries. Brazil and the Philippines are the largest cons...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The big surprise in the CFTC report was that funds, through Tuesday last week, did not exit as much of their long corn position as previously thought. Expectations were for funds to have pared that position back to about 125,000 contacts, instead they shed just 7,800 contracts (4.8 percent) and...
Market Commentary: Some Bouncing Off the Week’s Lows
Except for soyoil and SRW, the market provided a rebound today for the agricultural commodity markets. Most contracts reflected their overnight closes. Key points for today and the week include the following: New contract lows were printed this week in soybeans, soyoil, SRW, and HRS. Only...
December Cattle on Feed Report in Line with Expectations
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today. The total cattle on feed inventory was 12 million head, the same as last year, as expected. Placements also were as expected, and marketings were slightly above November 2023. 12202024dj.png 22.92 KBNovember marketings as a percent of...
Cocoa Market Outlook: Futures Overbought but Demand Rationing to Continue
The 2024/25 cocoa market outlook is dominated by production concerns and continuing tightness in global stocks-to-grindings levels. The latter point will likely keep futures and physical prices elevated as the market works to ration demand amid a fourth straight year of weak production from Wes...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 20 December)
Ocean Freight Comments - 20 December 2024By Matt HerringtonFreight markets – particularly the dry bulk sector - continue to see thin trade that is leaving rates in the doldrums. Demand and fresh inquiries remain light with vessel overcapacity further depressing rates. Vessel owners are continua...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Posts Reversal; Wheat Hits New Lows as Dollar Surges
The CBOT reversed much of its recent weakness on Thursday with technical trade and “bottom picking” emerging in the soy complex. The soy complex was not oversold technically, but with values sitting on or near major support levels, many traders figured this was the time to take short risk off t...
Market Commentary: Grains Firm, Soybeans Pull Back Heading into Holidays
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the holiday-shortened trading week with wheat leading the way on short-covering and despite the surging U.S. dollar. Corn followed the wheat market higher with its own support from the strong export program as USDA reported more “flash” export sales Monday. S...
Two Big Things; Trumpenomics
Two Big ThingsJust days before Christmas 2024, two big things happened that impact U.S. agriculture. On their way home for the holidays, members of the U.S. Congress passed a one-year extension of the farm bill. Farm groups were disappointed for a number of reasons, including the fact that expa...
Government Shutdown Averted; Process Provides Insights into 2025 Policy Making
A government shutdown was averted after frenetic eleventh-hour action last week in Congress to pass a continuing resolution, which is a short-term appropriations bill that extends the existing baseline level of funding. Under the terms of a previous CR passed on 25 September, the federal govern...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WheatOver the past seven days, the lack of rain allowed a 12.2-percentage-point increase in Argentina’s wheat harvest progress, which reached 76.1 percent of the area. Harvesting activities have focused on central and western Buenos Aires Province. Meanwhile, wheat commercialization and truck a...
European Market Analysis
Regional News On Monday morning, Russia announced that its 15 February – 30 June 2025 wheat export quota will be 10.6 MMT, slightly below the 11.0 MMT announced at the EEU meeting last month. Milling Wheat Global wheat markets continue to see pressure from slowing U.S. exports an...
Total versus Change in Pork Consumption
China is by far the world’s largest consumer of pork, eating over half the world’s supply. This also drives feed demand and this grain supply destruction. However, its per capita consumption is lower than many other large pork producing countries. Brazil and the Philippines are the largest cons...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The big surprise in the CFTC report was that funds, through Tuesday last week, did not exit as much of their long corn position as previously thought. Expectations were for funds to have pared that position back to about 125,000 contacts, instead they shed just 7,800 contracts (4.8 percent) and...
Market Commentary: Some Bouncing Off the Week’s Lows
Except for soyoil and SRW, the market provided a rebound today for the agricultural commodity markets. Most contracts reflected their overnight closes. Key points for today and the week include the following: New contract lows were printed this week in soybeans, soyoil, SRW, and HRS. Only...
December Cattle on Feed Report in Line with Expectations
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today. The total cattle on feed inventory was 12 million head, the same as last year, as expected. Placements also were as expected, and marketings were slightly above November 2023. 12202024dj.png 22.92 KBNovember marketings as a percent of...
Cocoa Market Outlook: Futures Overbought but Demand Rationing to Continue
The 2024/25 cocoa market outlook is dominated by production concerns and continuing tightness in global stocks-to-grindings levels. The latter point will likely keep futures and physical prices elevated as the market works to ration demand amid a fourth straight year of weak production from Wes...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 20 December)
Ocean Freight Comments - 20 December 2024By Matt HerringtonFreight markets – particularly the dry bulk sector - continue to see thin trade that is leaving rates in the doldrums. Demand and fresh inquiries remain light with vessel overcapacity further depressing rates. Vessel owners are continua...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Posts Reversal; Wheat Hits New Lows as Dollar Surges
The CBOT reversed much of its recent weakness on Thursday with technical trade and “bottom picking” emerging in the soy complex. The soy complex was not oversold technically, but with values sitting on or near major support levels, many traders figured this was the time to take short risk off t...