The reconciliation bill signed into law on 4 July, aka the One Big Beautiful Bill, increased statutory reference prices under the Agricultural Risk Payments (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) programs and made some changes to the effective reference prices (ERP) which are used to calculate payments under the PLC and affects the benchmark under the ARC calculations. These changes were tucked into the budget reconciliation legislation which included much of the farm bill, effectively reauthorizing it and making changes to policies. CBO projects a net reduction in farm bill spending by the reconciliation bill to be $120.25 billion over 2025-2034. That reduction includes a total $185.9 billion cut for food assistance in the Supplem...
Key Market Insights Geopolitical Limbo: Geopolitical risk remained a key driver across global commodity markets today. President Trump stated that the Iran memorandum of understanding is not yet final and warned that military action could resume if negotiations fail. Both sides continue w...
Key Takeaways: Drought remains a major threat to global agricultural production, particularly in regions with limited rainfall and growing water scarcity. Commercially available drought-tolerant traits in corn, soybeans, and wheat have generally delivered modest yield improvements, limiting th...
Key Takeaways: Peace at last in the Persian Gulf? Over the weekend, the U.S. announced and Iranian officials confirmed a peace agreement, with formal ratification set for Geneva on 19 June. The announcement means the Strait of Hormuz is set to reopen fully and toll-free within 30 days.&n...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.