Recent Biofuels Analysis
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed that managed money traders are becoming increasingly bearish corn and the soy complex while gradually easing short bets in the wheat market. The net effect of this dynamics, plus some mixed trade in livestock futures, was that funds’ total ag position (th...
Market Commentary: BBB, MAHA, Fundamentals and a Holiday
Corn, soybeans, soymeal, and cattle closed higher, while wheat, soyoil, and hogs dipped. The reasons are varied but pre-holiday trading tomorrow could see lower volume and some risk-off exits given the three-day break from trading. BBB Overnight trading and today’s trading session i...
Market Commentary: Weather Worries Drive Rallies
The CBOT was higher again on Wednesday with cool, wet weather for the U.S. Midwest causing planting delay concerns while hot, dry weather in the Black Sea motivated additional gains in global wheat markets. Of the weather concerns, conditions in the Black Sea and Europe seem to be the most cons...
Policy Quick Hits
The following is a rundown of some key issues impacting agriculture: Reconciliation: The reconciliation bill passed through the Agriculture Committee on a party line vote, 29 to 25. All the amendments offered also passed by the same party line vote. The bill would cut the Supplemental Nutrition...
Market Commentary: Corrections from Oversold/Overbought, Big Crops, Facts and Rumors
There was again a lot to unpack in today’s trade action, and not all of it was pretty. Big Crops: There is no getting around the fact that favorable weather for the most part is leading to big crops. Conab raised its soybean estimate to 169 MMT, now just 1 MMT below USDA. The Wheat Qualit...
Market Commentary: Tax Credit Hopes Bouy Soyoil; Wheat Gains on Weather; Cattle Turn Bearish
Weather and Congressional tax policy were at the forefront of futures traders’ minds on Wednesday and these two factors drove much of the day’s price action. The weather outlooks – favorable for the Corn Belt and dry for the Southern Plains, Europe, and Black Sea – creat...
Market Commentary: Wheat Reverses Course; Soyoil Rallies on Possible Tax Extension
The CBOT was mixed trade Tuesday following the May WASDE and USDA’s first complete look at the U.S. and world 2025/26 balance sheets. With the WASDE’s numbers now incorporated into futures prices the trade began looking for “what’s next”, which for corn meant a bea...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report highlighted funds’ increasingly bearish view on ag commodities with managed money traders emerging as net sellers across the major grain and oilseeds futures. Funds’ net position across the soy complex, corn, wheat, and livestock futures fell 30 percent la...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed that funds continue to lean bearish the ag space with money managers either paring back longs or expanding shorts. The only exceptions to the bearish trend was the continued buying in the livestock complex and, in a bit of a switch from recent trends, across th...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed that funds are slightly increasing bullish bets across the ag space, primarily in the soy complex and livestock futures. Managed money traders’ net ag position (the combined position across the soybean complex, the three U.S. wheat contracts, corn, and th...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report was consistent with expectations in that it showed managed money traders becoming dedicated net buyers across nearly every major ag market, with the notable exception of cattle futures. The buying was most notable in soybeans where, despite the trade war, funds flippe...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Wednesday on Tariff Pause
The ag markets – and financial markets broadly – posted a dramatic reversal on Wednesday after President Trump hinted on social media that he might create a 90-day pause in tariffs for some countries. That news sparked a huge turnaround in markets that otherwise seemed slated for we...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed that managed money traders are becoming increasingly bearish corn and the soy complex while gradually easing short bets in the wheat market. The net effect of this dynamics, plus some mixed trade in livestock futures, was that funds’ total ag position (th...
Market Commentary: BBB, MAHA, Fundamentals and a Holiday
Corn, soybeans, soymeal, and cattle closed higher, while wheat, soyoil, and hogs dipped. The reasons are varied but pre-holiday trading tomorrow could see lower volume and some risk-off exits given the three-day break from trading. BBB Overnight trading and today’s trading session i...
Market Commentary: Weather Worries Drive Rallies
The CBOT was higher again on Wednesday with cool, wet weather for the U.S. Midwest causing planting delay concerns while hot, dry weather in the Black Sea motivated additional gains in global wheat markets. Of the weather concerns, conditions in the Black Sea and Europe seem to be the most cons...
Policy Quick Hits
The following is a rundown of some key issues impacting agriculture: Reconciliation: The reconciliation bill passed through the Agriculture Committee on a party line vote, 29 to 25. All the amendments offered also passed by the same party line vote. The bill would cut the Supplemental Nutrition...
Market Commentary: Corrections from Oversold/Overbought, Big Crops, Facts and Rumors
There was again a lot to unpack in today’s trade action, and not all of it was pretty. Big Crops: There is no getting around the fact that favorable weather for the most part is leading to big crops. Conab raised its soybean estimate to 169 MMT, now just 1 MMT below USDA. The Wheat Qualit...
Market Commentary: Tax Credit Hopes Bouy Soyoil; Wheat Gains on Weather; Cattle Turn Bearish
Weather and Congressional tax policy were at the forefront of futures traders’ minds on Wednesday and these two factors drove much of the day’s price action. The weather outlooks – favorable for the Corn Belt and dry for the Southern Plains, Europe, and Black Sea – creat...
Market Commentary: Wheat Reverses Course; Soyoil Rallies on Possible Tax Extension
The CBOT was mixed trade Tuesday following the May WASDE and USDA’s first complete look at the U.S. and world 2025/26 balance sheets. With the WASDE’s numbers now incorporated into futures prices the trade began looking for “what’s next”, which for corn meant a bea...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report highlighted funds’ increasingly bearish view on ag commodities with managed money traders emerging as net sellers across the major grain and oilseeds futures. Funds’ net position across the soy complex, corn, wheat, and livestock futures fell 30 percent la...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed that funds continue to lean bearish the ag space with money managers either paring back longs or expanding shorts. The only exceptions to the bearish trend was the continued buying in the livestock complex and, in a bit of a switch from recent trends, across th...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed that funds are slightly increasing bullish bets across the ag space, primarily in the soy complex and livestock futures. Managed money traders’ net ag position (the combined position across the soybean complex, the three U.S. wheat contracts, corn, and th...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report was consistent with expectations in that it showed managed money traders becoming dedicated net buyers across nearly every major ag market, with the notable exception of cattle futures. The buying was most notable in soybeans where, despite the trade war, funds flippe...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Wednesday on Tariff Pause
The ag markets – and financial markets broadly – posted a dramatic reversal on Wednesday after President Trump hinted on social media that he might create a 90-day pause in tariffs for some countries. That news sparked a huge turnaround in markets that otherwise seemed slated for we...