Screwworm Updates; Executive Action on Import Enforcement; Bullish Jobs Report
Newworld screwworm Update The detection of New World screwworm (NWS) in Texas on Wednesday has been volatile for the cattle markets. The confirmation came on Wednesday evening, and the futures market opened sharply lower on Thursday. Market participants cited unknowns about cattle supplies and...
Man Behind the Curtain; Asia Reversal; Better Mousetrap
Man Behind the Curtain Hypocrisy is a feature and not a bug in politics, but it still deserves no mercy. EU trade minister Maros Sefcovic told Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Li Chenggang that Europe’s trade deficit with the Middle Kingdom is "unsustainable." He urged Li to address it even...
Big Ag Understood
Bernie Sanders attracted attention this week by declaring AI a “public resource” and calling for a 50 percent tax on AI companies to fund a sovereign wealth fund. Critics reacted by saying the idea proved that Sanders doesn’t understand AI or business, which is probably true o...
Tariffs II Messaging; Interstate Trade War; Oh Canada
Tariffs II Messaging President Trump’s use of IEPPA as the legal basis for last year’s reciprocal tariffs was struck down but they are returning under a different legal underpinning, Section 301. It is generally recognized that only the legal underpinning has changed while the polic...
Game of Chicken; Turnberry Precedent
Game of Chicken The U.S. and Mexico just completed an initial round of bilateral negotiations leading up to completing a joint review of the U.S. Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA). A second round is scheduled for June 16-17 in Washington and will include agriculture as a key agenda item. A third...
Poultry and Egg Markets Weighed Against HPAI
From the monthly cold storage report it is interesting to look at the poultry numbers and changes due to HPAI that has been plaguing the sector to some degree since 2022. Total chicken in cold storage was up 1.1 percent on the year and up 0.9 percent on the month. For eggs, the total inve...
Commodity Policy Being Shaped by Unfolding Farm Crisis
With the war in Iran affecting fuel and fertilizer prices, higher tariffs, weak commodity prices, ag labor constraints, and other factors, farm bankruptcies are now at a 6-year high, a signal of growing stress. During the month of April, 62 Chapter 12 bankruptcies were filed, which is a 1...
Food Inflation; Last Laugh; MAHA Progress; Offense is Defense
Food Inflation The Open Markets Institute, which is notably funded by several “anonymous” donors and liberal foundations, obtained a guest editorial in the New York Times in which they blame agribusiness concentration for higher grocery prices. This is their schtick and it is politi...
Responsible Use of AI; Ukraine and CAP Money
Responsible Use of AI WPI does not have an encyclical on AI but since it employs real human analysts there is a view towards the technology. In short, it is a tool that should be used responsibly. AI analysis is not bad unless it is the default. It has advanced to the point that it is no longer...
Dangerously Clueless; Old is New Category (Den of Pirates); Trade Purists
Dangerously Clueless Lazy analysts and food system critics have shifted attention temporarily from how bad our food is (UPFs,) to why it is expensive. Bloomberg correctly sites higher labor costs, tariffs, weather (El Niño), fertilizer prices, higher energy and transportation costs, the...
China Partially Lifts HPAI Restrictions
As we reported on 19 May, China has also committed to the resumption of U.S. poultry imports from states without confirmed HPAI detections. USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has updated its China export restrictions webpage to reflect that China has lifted HPAI-rel...
New Trade Agreements; Hold the Beef; Where’s the Beef
New Trade Agreements U.S. and Indian officials say that bilateral trade negotiations are progressing on a comprehensive deal to expand earlier completed chapters on market access, NTBs and purchases. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has become more free trade oriented since consolidating his power...
Screwworm Updates; Executive Action on Import Enforcement; Bullish Jobs Report
Newworld screwworm Update The detection of New World screwworm (NWS) in Texas on Wednesday has been volatile for the cattle markets. The confirmation came on Wednesday evening, and the futures market opened sharply lower on Thursday. Market participants cited unknowns about cattle supplies and...
Man Behind the Curtain; Asia Reversal; Better Mousetrap
Man Behind the Curtain Hypocrisy is a feature and not a bug in politics, but it still deserves no mercy. EU trade minister Maros Sefcovic told Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Li Chenggang that Europe’s trade deficit with the Middle Kingdom is "unsustainable." He urged Li to address it even...
Big Ag Understood
Bernie Sanders attracted attention this week by declaring AI a “public resource” and calling for a 50 percent tax on AI companies to fund a sovereign wealth fund. Critics reacted by saying the idea proved that Sanders doesn’t understand AI or business, which is probably true o...
Tariffs II Messaging; Interstate Trade War; Oh Canada
Tariffs II Messaging President Trump’s use of IEPPA as the legal basis for last year’s reciprocal tariffs was struck down but they are returning under a different legal underpinning, Section 301. It is generally recognized that only the legal underpinning has changed while the polic...
Game of Chicken; Turnberry Precedent
Game of Chicken The U.S. and Mexico just completed an initial round of bilateral negotiations leading up to completing a joint review of the U.S. Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA). A second round is scheduled for June 16-17 in Washington and will include agriculture as a key agenda item. A third...
Poultry and Egg Markets Weighed Against HPAI
From the monthly cold storage report it is interesting to look at the poultry numbers and changes due to HPAI that has been plaguing the sector to some degree since 2022. Total chicken in cold storage was up 1.1 percent on the year and up 0.9 percent on the month. For eggs, the total inve...
Commodity Policy Being Shaped by Unfolding Farm Crisis
With the war in Iran affecting fuel and fertilizer prices, higher tariffs, weak commodity prices, ag labor constraints, and other factors, farm bankruptcies are now at a 6-year high, a signal of growing stress. During the month of April, 62 Chapter 12 bankruptcies were filed, which is a 1...
Food Inflation; Last Laugh; MAHA Progress; Offense is Defense
Food Inflation The Open Markets Institute, which is notably funded by several “anonymous” donors and liberal foundations, obtained a guest editorial in the New York Times in which they blame agribusiness concentration for higher grocery prices. This is their schtick and it is politi...
Responsible Use of AI; Ukraine and CAP Money
Responsible Use of AI WPI does not have an encyclical on AI but since it employs real human analysts there is a view towards the technology. In short, it is a tool that should be used responsibly. AI analysis is not bad unless it is the default. It has advanced to the point that it is no longer...
Dangerously Clueless; Old is New Category (Den of Pirates); Trade Purists
Dangerously Clueless Lazy analysts and food system critics have shifted attention temporarily from how bad our food is (UPFs,) to why it is expensive. Bloomberg correctly sites higher labor costs, tariffs, weather (El Niño), fertilizer prices, higher energy and transportation costs, the...
China Partially Lifts HPAI Restrictions
As we reported on 19 May, China has also committed to the resumption of U.S. poultry imports from states without confirmed HPAI detections. USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has updated its China export restrictions webpage to reflect that China has lifted HPAI-rel...
New Trade Agreements; Hold the Beef; Where’s the Beef
New Trade Agreements U.S. and Indian officials say that bilateral trade negotiations are progressing on a comprehensive deal to expand earlier completed chapters on market access, NTBs and purchases. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has become more free trade oriented since consolidating his power...