Inflation Ramps Up on Energy and Food Away from Home
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) today, showing that it rose 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted, month over month, after being up 0.3 percent in February, and rose 3.3 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. Energy was the...
Policy Deference; Reasserting Article I; Two-Tailed Dog; EU Imports; WTO Skepticism
Policy Deference The bilateral trade balance is a narrow way to look at the relative relationship between two countries. The government of Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo is seeking to ignore its own regulations that guide the application of the General Law on Adequate and Sustainable...
China Market Analysis
Hormuz Strategy China has been assisting Iran under a 25-year strategic agreement that has 90 percent of Iranian crude going to the Middle Kingdom. Iran is not currently blocking tankers passing through the Strait and on their way to China. At the same time, China is providing Iran with dual-us...
Sugar Supply and Demand Situation
Mexico’s 2025/26 sugar production is estimated to be 5.024 million MT, reflecting about a 6 percent increase from 4.7 million MT after the past two years of weather-affected output, including both persistent drought and ill-timed rains. Nonetheless, production remains near the low end com...
Farmland Consolidation
Under the theory of economies of scale, the size of farms, like that of all industries, should increase over time due to improvements in productivity. Farmers themselves understand that the more land they farm, the greater their output and, thus, the larger their potential incomes. Government p...
The President’s 2027 Budget Proposal
President Trump unveiled his FY2027 budget proposal on Friday. The President’s budget, which is largely for positioning purposes, poses a starting point for Congressional budget deliberations and proposes a 19 percent cut to the USDA and a massive 42 percent boost to Pentagon spending. Th...
Good Friday
Tomorrow, 2 April, is a holiday for the CBOT/CME markets in observance of Good Friday. Please note that our office will also be closed. The next Ag Perspectives will be published Monday, 6 April. ...
AI Disaster; Fringe Opinions; NTE 40th Update
AI Disaster Opponents of artificial intelligence, like Senator Bernie Sanders (S-Vermont), warn that the technology risks the end of the human race. So-called AI “doomers” are campaigning to stall advancements out of precaution, mostly fearing adverse impacts on the labor force. The...
Lots To Do for Congress When They Return to Washington
Congress is in recess this week ahead of the Easter and Passover holidays, with much yet to do, including ending a partial shutdown and considering the “skinny” farm bill. Congress is scheduled to return on 13 April, though that may change, especially if the Homeland Security fundin...
China Market Analysis
SPS Barriers India’s rice exports to China have been accelerating, but Beijing recently rejected three shipments of non-Basmati rice, citing genetically modified content. The technical rejection is notable because China’s Certification and Inspection Group had already pre-cleared th...
Forlorn or Failure; Fertile or Futile; AI Impacts; Dirty Dozen Disinformation
Forlorn or Failure The spin from the WTO on the organization’s recent MC14 meetings was that a lot of decisions were adopted, progress was made, and while the event “ran out of time,” new commitments on outstanding issues can still be made in Geneva. Director-General Ngozi Oko...
Prospective Planting and Quarterly Stocks Reports Preview
The 2026 USDA Prospective Plantings Report is scheduled for release tomorrow. The report surveys farmer planting intentions for major crops, including corn, soybeans, and wheat. It also asks about 2025 planted and prevent-plant acres. This report gives the first real snapshot of what planted ac...
Inflation Ramps Up on Energy and Food Away from Home
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) today, showing that it rose 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted, month over month, after being up 0.3 percent in February, and rose 3.3 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. Energy was the...
Policy Deference; Reasserting Article I; Two-Tailed Dog; EU Imports; WTO Skepticism
Policy Deference The bilateral trade balance is a narrow way to look at the relative relationship between two countries. The government of Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo is seeking to ignore its own regulations that guide the application of the General Law on Adequate and Sustainable...
China Market Analysis
Hormuz Strategy China has been assisting Iran under a 25-year strategic agreement that has 90 percent of Iranian crude going to the Middle Kingdom. Iran is not currently blocking tankers passing through the Strait and on their way to China. At the same time, China is providing Iran with dual-us...
Sugar Supply and Demand Situation
Mexico’s 2025/26 sugar production is estimated to be 5.024 million MT, reflecting about a 6 percent increase from 4.7 million MT after the past two years of weather-affected output, including both persistent drought and ill-timed rains. Nonetheless, production remains near the low end com...
Farmland Consolidation
Under the theory of economies of scale, the size of farms, like that of all industries, should increase over time due to improvements in productivity. Farmers themselves understand that the more land they farm, the greater their output and, thus, the larger their potential incomes. Government p...
The President’s 2027 Budget Proposal
President Trump unveiled his FY2027 budget proposal on Friday. The President’s budget, which is largely for positioning purposes, poses a starting point for Congressional budget deliberations and proposes a 19 percent cut to the USDA and a massive 42 percent boost to Pentagon spending. Th...
Good Friday
Tomorrow, 2 April, is a holiday for the CBOT/CME markets in observance of Good Friday. Please note that our office will also be closed. The next Ag Perspectives will be published Monday, 6 April. ...
AI Disaster; Fringe Opinions; NTE 40th Update
AI Disaster Opponents of artificial intelligence, like Senator Bernie Sanders (S-Vermont), warn that the technology risks the end of the human race. So-called AI “doomers” are campaigning to stall advancements out of precaution, mostly fearing adverse impacts on the labor force. The...
Lots To Do for Congress When They Return to Washington
Congress is in recess this week ahead of the Easter and Passover holidays, with much yet to do, including ending a partial shutdown and considering the “skinny” farm bill. Congress is scheduled to return on 13 April, though that may change, especially if the Homeland Security fundin...
China Market Analysis
SPS Barriers India’s rice exports to China have been accelerating, but Beijing recently rejected three shipments of non-Basmati rice, citing genetically modified content. The technical rejection is notable because China’s Certification and Inspection Group had already pre-cleared th...
Forlorn or Failure; Fertile or Futile; AI Impacts; Dirty Dozen Disinformation
Forlorn or Failure The spin from the WTO on the organization’s recent MC14 meetings was that a lot of decisions were adopted, progress was made, and while the event “ran out of time,” new commitments on outstanding issues can still be made in Geneva. Director-General Ngozi Oko...
Prospective Planting and Quarterly Stocks Reports Preview
The 2026 USDA Prospective Plantings Report is scheduled for release tomorrow. The report surveys farmer planting intentions for major crops, including corn, soybeans, and wheat. It also asks about 2025 planted and prevent-plant acres. This report gives the first real snapshot of what planted ac...