USMCA 11th Hour and New Tariffs for Canada Not Over
Based on a Depression-era statute, President Trump imposed 50 percent tariffs on $20 billion of exports to the U.S., or about 5.2 percent of the $383 billion worth of goods the U.S. imported from Canada in 2025, according to U.S. Census Bureau data. Of that total, about $39.3 billion was agricu...
Fertilizer’s Bullish Outlook for 2027
Unlike the 2022 fertilizer shock, today’s disruption is rooted less in rerouted trade flows and more in damaged production capacity, raw material constraints and uncertain recovery timelines. That makes this a longer-duration risk for U.S. agricultural producers and retailers who must sec...
Beef Capacity Disappearing
The big news in the cattle markets yesterday was Tyson Foods’ move to close two more beef plants. One of them, the Joslin, Illinois, plant was shuttered immediately after the announcement. The other, in Eagle Mountain, Utah, is a case-ready plant that does not slaughter cattle. Tyson also...
Inflation: Mixed Bag with CPI on Target and PPI Down and Iran War Hovering
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday. In July, the CPI rose 0.1 percent, seasonally adjusted, and rose 3.4 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. The index for all items less food and energy, or the “core” infla...
Agricultural Precision Technology: A Look Back and Forward
We have described the long-term investment climate in crop and livestock production, using data primarily from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The data provided background on the current investment climate and outlook for agricultural capital formation. Our conclusion was that investment...
Livestock Roundup: Livestock WASDE
Yesterday, the USDA released its monthly World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), forecasting tighter beef and pork supplies and growing broiler supplies, resulting in a tighter red meat supply. Broiler production, however, continues to grow and is forecast to be up more than 3 percent. Beef...
Trade and Tariffs’ Effect on GDP for First Half of 2026
The trade deficit contracted slightly to $73.3 billion in June, a break from the volatility that has underscored international trade over the past year. Despite the small change, there was plenty of activity behind the scenes: imports fell $7.3 billion, led by crude oil, reflecting cheaper crud...
Senate Farm Bill: What’s Next?
Senator John Boozman (R-Arkansas) has urged farmers to apply pressure on the failed farm bill during the August recess. His intent is to hold another vote on the legislation as soon as possible upon the Senate’s return from a five-week break on 14 September. From a parliamentary perspecti...
Senate Farm Bill Derailed over SNAP
Yesterday the Senate Agriculture Committee held its markup of the “skinny” farm bill, and it was derailed over Democratic opposition to plans for imposing food stamp costs on state governments. The Democrats pushed back on a provision that required states to pick up a larger share o...
Agricultural Investment: More Than Commodity Prices
Last week we reviewed an overlooked measure: agricultural productive capital. Using some Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data, we developed an index of gross capital investment, which showed a major investment surge in agricultural equipment purchases in 2012–2014. Farm investments peak...
Transportation Perspectives - 6 August
Key Takeaways: Global freight markets are mixed this week with Capesize and Panamax vessel seeing strong performance, primarily on iron ore demand and U.S. Gulf and ECSA grain demand. Handysize and, to a lesser extent, Supramax vessels are trading lower as charterers focus on larger vess...
Wool Economics: A Missing U.S. Value Chain
Wool is one of the most misunderstood U.S. agricultural commodities. Fine wool in the 17–21 micron range commands premium prices in luxury apparel, technical outdoor gear, and high-end knitwear, while coarser wool is gaining support as building codes and standards shift toward natural-fib...
Senate Farm Bill Draft Released
Late Friday afternoon, Chairman John Boozman (R-Arkansas) released an updated draft of the Senate farm bill. The farm bill markup is scheduled for Thursday, 6 August at 9:30 a.m. Eastern time. Boozman has been negotiating with Ranking Minority Member Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-Minnesota) to craft...
Specialty Crops Seeking Equity in Funding
A bipartisan group of 26 lawmakers, led by Representative David Valadao (R-CA), sent a letter to House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) and House Agriculture Committee Chair GT Thompson (R-Pennsylvania) requesting that $5 billion of the temporary economic assistance for farmers go toward spec...
Agriculture’s Productive Capital: An Overlooked Measure
Agriculture generates a lot of numbers in addition to crops and livestock. As ag economists, we are continually reviewing crop production, commodity prices, farm incomes, and international trade. You don’t often see much about capital investment in the ag press, however. New mills and gra...
The Deserted Village
Oliver Goldsmith's The Deserted Village, published in 1770, is of a timeless quality. It is a 425-line lament for a disappearing rural world, where prosperous villages give way to larger estates, fewer farmers, and emigration. One passage even follows those leaving for the new colony of Georgia...
The Consumer Reset: How GLP-1, Protein, and Value Are Reshaping Foodservice
The industry has spent two years bracing for GLP-1 medications to hollow out demand, but the data so far tells a more interesting story. Roughly one in eight adults currently uses a GLP-1, and an additional 29 percent of non-users say they would consider it if it became more accessible and cost...
More Doors, Same Dollars: The QSR Share Fight
Just when it seemed the restaurant industry had finally moved beyond the pandemic disruption, the arithmetic of the American food dollar caught up with it. The National Restaurant Association projects that total restaurant and foodservice sales will reach a record $1.55 trillion in 2026, but on...
Cow-Calf Profit Outlook Riskier on Drought, Cost Pressures
Key Takeaways: U.S. cow-calf producers are facing another year of record-breaking revenues and net returns for 2026, though rising cost pressures and pullbacks in cattle prices increase risks. Drought remains a key concern for much of the cow-calf industry this year, with rising feed cos...
Little Hope for Rumored Black Sea Civilian Vessel Agreement
Key Takeaways: Grain futures pulled back sharply in overnight trade Friday on rumors that Ukraine proposed two possible options for ensuring civilian vessel safety in the Black Sea. Both Russia and Ukraine have recently targeted civilian vessels carrying oil and grain in the Sea of Azov...
Section 301: A New Tariff Architecture
Just when we thought it was safe to step outside and enjoy some certainty in the world of international commerce, the Trump Administration announced on Thursday afternoon a barrage of tariffs on 60 countries based on its recent Section 301 investigations. Section 301 permits the executive branc...
Shifts in Global Hunger
Key Takeaways: The latest UN data shows solid progress reducing global hunger and food insecurity. The geography of hunger-affected people has shifted substantially, however, and Africa is now the most affected region. To understand why hunger patterns have shifted and what policy option...
The Cotton Demand Impacts of Military Conflict
Key Takeaways: Global and U.S. cotton demand has struggled since the post-COVID-19 pandemic surge, which has left cotton prices drifting lower in the U.S. The war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, along with their impact on global energy markets, could boost cotton demand...
Agricultural Labor Shortages Accelerate Automation, but Challenges Remain
Key Takeaways: Persistent labor shortages are increasing operational challenges and costs across U.S. agriculture, particularly in labor-intensive sectors such as specialty crops, dairy, and meat processing. Immigrant workers, including H-2A employees, remain essential to the agricultural work...
USMCA 11th Hour and New Tariffs for Canada Not Over
Based on a Depression-era statute, President Trump imposed 50 percent tariffs on $20 billion of exports to the U.S., or about 5.2 percent of the $383 billion worth of goods the U.S. imported from Canada in 2025, according to U.S. Census Bureau data. Of that total, about $39.3 billion was agricu...
Fertilizer’s Bullish Outlook for 2027
Unlike the 2022 fertilizer shock, today’s disruption is rooted less in rerouted trade flows and more in damaged production capacity, raw material constraints and uncertain recovery timelines. That makes this a longer-duration risk for U.S. agricultural producers and retailers who must sec...
Beef Capacity Disappearing
The big news in the cattle markets yesterday was Tyson Foods’ move to close two more beef plants. One of them, the Joslin, Illinois, plant was shuttered immediately after the announcement. The other, in Eagle Mountain, Utah, is a case-ready plant that does not slaughter cattle. Tyson also...
Inflation: Mixed Bag with CPI on Target and PPI Down and Iran War Hovering
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday. In July, the CPI rose 0.1 percent, seasonally adjusted, and rose 3.4 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. The index for all items less food and energy, or the “core” infla...
Agricultural Precision Technology: A Look Back and Forward
We have described the long-term investment climate in crop and livestock production, using data primarily from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The data provided background on the current investment climate and outlook for agricultural capital formation. Our conclusion was that investment...
Livestock Roundup: Livestock WASDE
Yesterday, the USDA released its monthly World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), forecasting tighter beef and pork supplies and growing broiler supplies, resulting in a tighter red meat supply. Broiler production, however, continues to grow and is forecast to be up more than 3 percent. Beef...
Trade and Tariffs’ Effect on GDP for First Half of 2026
The trade deficit contracted slightly to $73.3 billion in June, a break from the volatility that has underscored international trade over the past year. Despite the small change, there was plenty of activity behind the scenes: imports fell $7.3 billion, led by crude oil, reflecting cheaper crud...
Senate Farm Bill: What’s Next?
Senator John Boozman (R-Arkansas) has urged farmers to apply pressure on the failed farm bill during the August recess. His intent is to hold another vote on the legislation as soon as possible upon the Senate’s return from a five-week break on 14 September. From a parliamentary perspecti...
Senate Farm Bill Derailed over SNAP
Yesterday the Senate Agriculture Committee held its markup of the “skinny” farm bill, and it was derailed over Democratic opposition to plans for imposing food stamp costs on state governments. The Democrats pushed back on a provision that required states to pick up a larger share o...
Agricultural Investment: More Than Commodity Prices
Last week we reviewed an overlooked measure: agricultural productive capital. Using some Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data, we developed an index of gross capital investment, which showed a major investment surge in agricultural equipment purchases in 2012–2014. Farm investments peak...
Transportation Perspectives - 6 August
Key Takeaways: Global freight markets are mixed this week with Capesize and Panamax vessel seeing strong performance, primarily on iron ore demand and U.S. Gulf and ECSA grain demand. Handysize and, to a lesser extent, Supramax vessels are trading lower as charterers focus on larger vess...
Wool Economics: A Missing U.S. Value Chain
Wool is one of the most misunderstood U.S. agricultural commodities. Fine wool in the 17–21 micron range commands premium prices in luxury apparel, technical outdoor gear, and high-end knitwear, while coarser wool is gaining support as building codes and standards shift toward natural-fib...
Senate Farm Bill Draft Released
Late Friday afternoon, Chairman John Boozman (R-Arkansas) released an updated draft of the Senate farm bill. The farm bill markup is scheduled for Thursday, 6 August at 9:30 a.m. Eastern time. Boozman has been negotiating with Ranking Minority Member Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-Minnesota) to craft...
Specialty Crops Seeking Equity in Funding
A bipartisan group of 26 lawmakers, led by Representative David Valadao (R-CA), sent a letter to House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) and House Agriculture Committee Chair GT Thompson (R-Pennsylvania) requesting that $5 billion of the temporary economic assistance for farmers go toward spec...
Agriculture’s Productive Capital: An Overlooked Measure
Agriculture generates a lot of numbers in addition to crops and livestock. As ag economists, we are continually reviewing crop production, commodity prices, farm incomes, and international trade. You don’t often see much about capital investment in the ag press, however. New mills and gra...
The Deserted Village
Oliver Goldsmith's The Deserted Village, published in 1770, is of a timeless quality. It is a 425-line lament for a disappearing rural world, where prosperous villages give way to larger estates, fewer farmers, and emigration. One passage even follows those leaving for the new colony of Georgia...
The Consumer Reset: How GLP-1, Protein, and Value Are Reshaping Foodservice
The industry has spent two years bracing for GLP-1 medications to hollow out demand, but the data so far tells a more interesting story. Roughly one in eight adults currently uses a GLP-1, and an additional 29 percent of non-users say they would consider it if it became more accessible and cost...
More Doors, Same Dollars: The QSR Share Fight
Just when it seemed the restaurant industry had finally moved beyond the pandemic disruption, the arithmetic of the American food dollar caught up with it. The National Restaurant Association projects that total restaurant and foodservice sales will reach a record $1.55 trillion in 2026, but on...
Cow-Calf Profit Outlook Riskier on Drought, Cost Pressures
Key Takeaways: U.S. cow-calf producers are facing another year of record-breaking revenues and net returns for 2026, though rising cost pressures and pullbacks in cattle prices increase risks. Drought remains a key concern for much of the cow-calf industry this year, with rising feed cos...
Little Hope for Rumored Black Sea Civilian Vessel Agreement
Key Takeaways: Grain futures pulled back sharply in overnight trade Friday on rumors that Ukraine proposed two possible options for ensuring civilian vessel safety in the Black Sea. Both Russia and Ukraine have recently targeted civilian vessels carrying oil and grain in the Sea of Azov...
Section 301: A New Tariff Architecture
Just when we thought it was safe to step outside and enjoy some certainty in the world of international commerce, the Trump Administration announced on Thursday afternoon a barrage of tariffs on 60 countries based on its recent Section 301 investigations. Section 301 permits the executive branc...
Shifts in Global Hunger
Key Takeaways: The latest UN data shows solid progress reducing global hunger and food insecurity. The geography of hunger-affected people has shifted substantially, however, and Africa is now the most affected region. To understand why hunger patterns have shifted and what policy option...
The Cotton Demand Impacts of Military Conflict
Key Takeaways: Global and U.S. cotton demand has struggled since the post-COVID-19 pandemic surge, which has left cotton prices drifting lower in the U.S. The war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, along with their impact on global energy markets, could boost cotton demand...
Agricultural Labor Shortages Accelerate Automation, but Challenges Remain
Key Takeaways: Persistent labor shortages are increasing operational challenges and costs across U.S. agriculture, particularly in labor-intensive sectors such as specialty crops, dairy, and meat processing. Immigrant workers, including H-2A employees, remain essential to the agricultural work...