In the now fifth U.S. government shutdown in the past 30 years, everyone is guessing about its duration because each shutdown has had its own unique circumstances. The online prediction markets have a range of guesses, all tending toward the shorter side of the last one under Mr. Trump, 35 days back in 2018-19 before he caved. But Mr. Trump is a different president than in his freshman term.  Key payments and services to Americans will continue, and the stock market closed higher today despite the government’s closure.  The political battle is over controlling the news cycles and thus playing to the hopes or fears of Americans. If it goes badly for the GOP, Republicans could simply (likely forever) remove the use of the fili...

TAGS – North America, Macroeconomics