Australia
WASDE Wheat - Jan 2026
USDA’s Jan estimate for 2025/26 U.S. wheat left exports unchanged at 900 million bushels. Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks were raised 25 million bushels to 926 million, up 8 percent from the previous year. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $4.90. The wo...
WASDE Wheat - Dec 2025
USDA’s Dec 2025 estimate is that the 2025/26 season-average wheat price received by U.S. farmers will remain at $5.00 per bushel. Global wheat stocks rose 3.4 million tons to 274.9 million, mainly on increases for several exporting countries...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2025
USDA’s November 2025 estimate is for U.S. wheat ending stocks to increase 57 million bushels to 901. The projected U.S. season-average wheat price received by farmers is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $5.00. The global ending stocks of total wheat increased to 271.4 million; This is the firs...
WASDE Wheat - Jan 2026
USDA’s Jan estimate for 2025/26 U.S. wheat left exports unchanged at 900 million bushels. Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks were raised 25 million bushels to 926 million, up 8 percent from the previous year. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $4.90. The wo...
WASDE Wheat - Dec 2025
USDA’s Dec 2025 estimate is that the 2025/26 season-average wheat price received by U.S. farmers will remain at $5.00 per bushel. Global wheat stocks rose 3.4 million tons to 274.9 million, mainly on increases for several exporting countries...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2025
USDA’s November 2025 estimate is for U.S. wheat ending stocks to increase 57 million bushels to 901. The projected U.S. season-average wheat price received by farmers is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $5.00. The global ending stocks of total wheat increased to 271.4 million; This is the firs...
Will Argentina Beef Imports Rescue High U.S. Beef Prices?
Last week, due to the coincidental timing of the deal with Argentina and elections coming there on 26 October and with Javier Milei being a close ally of President Trump, we speculated that Trump’s plan for lowering beef prices relied, at least in part, on Argentine imports. On Sunday, Tr...
Asia
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 30 January)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Transportation and Export Report - 28 January 2026
Grain transportation was thrown into confusion this week as ice and low water levels on the Mississippi River System snarled barge traffic and caused a surge in CIF grain values. On the ocean freight markets, rising bunker prices and improved demand in the Atlantic drove dry-bulk markets higher...
Thailand Soy Tariffs Update
Thailand’s market is now officially reopened to soybean and soymeal imports as the government has resolved a lapse in tariff policy that caused import duties to default to prohibitively high levels earlier this month. On 27 January, the Thai Cabinet approved the continuation of its market...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 30 January)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Transportation and Export Report - 28 January 2026
Grain transportation was thrown into confusion this week as ice and low water levels on the Mississippi River System snarled barge traffic and caused a surge in CIF grain values. On the ocean freight markets, rising bunker prices and improved demand in the Atlantic drove dry-bulk markets higher...
Thailand Soy Tariffs Update
Thailand’s market is now officially reopened to soybean and soymeal imports as the government has resolved a lapse in tariff policy that caused import duties to default to prohibitively high levels earlier this month. On 27 January, the Thai Cabinet approved the continuation of its market...
Free Trade Style; 30,000 Feet; Technology Evolution; Taxing Food
Free Trade Style Brussels realizes the mistake it made when it included agriculture in its free trade negotiations with the Mercosur countries. Proponents bragged that it would remove most tariffs on EU–Latin American food trade and concurrently protect Europe’s geographic indicator...
Black Sea
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 30 January)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Transportation and Export Report - 28 January 2026
Grain transportation was thrown into confusion this week as ice and low water levels on the Mississippi River System snarled barge traffic and caused a surge in CIF grain values. On the ocean freight markets, rising bunker prices and improved demand in the Atlantic drove dry-bulk markets higher...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19–23 January 2026 The Russian grains market is volatile, showing bearish sentiments on the RUB export trade platform despite increased export prices, even with zero duty in place. The government woke up to the fact that, to remain competitive and make both the farm...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 30 January)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Transportation and Export Report - 28 January 2026
Grain transportation was thrown into confusion this week as ice and low water levels on the Mississippi River System snarled barge traffic and caused a surge in CIF grain values. On the ocean freight markets, rising bunker prices and improved demand in the Atlantic drove dry-bulk markets higher...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19–23 January 2026 The Russian grains market is volatile, showing bearish sentiments on the RUB export trade platform despite increased export prices, even with zero duty in place. The government woke up to the fact that, to remain competitive and make both the farm...
2026 Outlook: Market Home Runs Unlikely, Use Risk Management to Stay at Bat This Year
With the spring planting effort just around the corner, producers and traders are starting to get a handle on the outlook for the coming marketing year. That outlook suffered a bit of a shock following the January WASDE report, as USDA reiterated the large-supply narrative for U.S. and world gr...
China
Markets Not Government; Fueling and Building Cars; Middle Power Potential; EU Mimics China
Markets Not Government A common refrain from U.S. agriculture groups is that they prefer to get their income from the market than the government. Most of their income is derived from the market but it looks more romantic than real when one considers that government supplements determine the bre...
China Market Analysis
2025 Review The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs says China produced a record 714.9 MMT of grain in 2025, an increase of 8.4 MMT, or 2.6 percent. The volume was achieved despite bouts of drought, prolonged rainfall, and flooding. Most of the increase was in maize, and output was booste...
Water Wars: 2026 Edition
Water is the world’s most important commodity, but also its most underappreciated—until scarcity starts. Water scarcity runs in cycles, and reports of shortages, debates on policy, and conflicts about ownership and usage pop up every few years with the reliability and sameness of Fa...
Markets Not Government; Fueling and Building Cars; Middle Power Potential; EU Mimics China
Markets Not Government A common refrain from U.S. agriculture groups is that they prefer to get their income from the market than the government. Most of their income is derived from the market but it looks more romantic than real when one considers that government supplements determine the bre...
China Market Analysis
2025 Review The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs says China produced a record 714.9 MMT of grain in 2025, an increase of 8.4 MMT, or 2.6 percent. The volume was achieved despite bouts of drought, prolonged rainfall, and flooding. Most of the increase was in maize, and output was booste...
Water Wars: 2026 Edition
Water is the world’s most important commodity, but also its most underappreciated—until scarcity starts. Water scarcity runs in cycles, and reports of shortages, debates on policy, and conflicts about ownership and usage pop up every few years with the reliability and sameness of Fa...
2026 Outlook: Market Home Runs Unlikely, Use Risk Management to Stay at Bat This Year
With the spring planting effort just around the corner, producers and traders are starting to get a handle on the outlook for the coming marketing year. That outlook suffered a bit of a shock following the January WASDE report, as USDA reiterated the large-supply narrative for U.S. and world gr...
Europe
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 30 January)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Transportation and Export Report - 28 January 2026
Grain transportation was thrown into confusion this week as ice and low water levels on the Mississippi River System snarled barge traffic and caused a surge in CIF grain values. On the ocean freight markets, rising bunker prices and improved demand in the Atlantic drove dry-bulk markets higher...
Markets Not Government; Fueling and Building Cars; Middle Power Potential; EU Mimics China
Markets Not Government A common refrain from U.S. agriculture groups is that they prefer to get their income from the market than the government. Most of their income is derived from the market but it looks more romantic than real when one considers that government supplements determine the bre...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 30 January)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Transportation and Export Report - 28 January 2026
Grain transportation was thrown into confusion this week as ice and low water levels on the Mississippi River System snarled barge traffic and caused a surge in CIF grain values. On the ocean freight markets, rising bunker prices and improved demand in the Atlantic drove dry-bulk markets higher...
Markets Not Government; Fueling and Building Cars; Middle Power Potential; EU Mimics China
Markets Not Government A common refrain from U.S. agriculture groups is that they prefer to get their income from the market than the government. Most of their income is derived from the market but it looks more romantic than real when one considers that government supplements determine the bre...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Macroeconomic markets remain especially uncertain and chaotic, and exchange-rate volatility is having a direct impact on grain trade. Pricing has been somewhat inconsistent this week amid the currency moves, as exporters and buyers alike try to navigate the volatility. Over...
India
Markets Not Government; Fueling and Building Cars; Middle Power Potential; EU Mimics China
Markets Not Government A common refrain from U.S. agriculture groups is that they prefer to get their income from the market than the government. Most of their income is derived from the market but it looks more romantic than real when one considers that government supplements determine the bre...
Water Wars: 2026 Edition
Water is the world’s most important commodity, but also its most underappreciated—until scarcity starts. Water scarcity runs in cycles, and reports of shortages, debates on policy, and conflicts about ownership and usage pop up every few years with the reliability and sameness of Fa...
Greenland: More Tariffs on 1 February
Greenland is heating up in the latest news, and not due to global warming, but rather rising security concerns. President Trump said of Greenland, the semi-autonomous territory of Denmark, that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has been telling Denmark for 20 years that “you h...
Markets Not Government; Fueling and Building Cars; Middle Power Potential; EU Mimics China
Markets Not Government A common refrain from U.S. agriculture groups is that they prefer to get their income from the market than the government. Most of their income is derived from the market but it looks more romantic than real when one considers that government supplements determine the bre...
Water Wars: 2026 Edition
Water is the world’s most important commodity, but also its most underappreciated—until scarcity starts. Water scarcity runs in cycles, and reports of shortages, debates on policy, and conflicts about ownership and usage pop up every few years with the reliability and sameness of Fa...
Greenland: More Tariffs on 1 February
Greenland is heating up in the latest news, and not due to global warming, but rather rising security concerns. President Trump said of Greenland, the semi-autonomous territory of Denmark, that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has been telling Denmark for 20 years that “you h...
WASDE Soybeans - Jan 2026
USDA’s Jan estimate for 2025/26 U.S. soybeans is increased by 17 million bushels on higher beginning stocks and production. Soybean crush for 2025/26 is raised 15 million bushels to 2.57 billion bushels on higher soybean meal domestic disappearance and exports. Soybean meal and soybean oi...
Middle East & Africa
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 30 January)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Turkey’s barley imports in 2025/26 are forecasted to reach 1.7 MMT, up from only 150,000 MT in 2024/25. The increase is due to the expected 13 percent drought-related drop in barley production this year. Turkey’s impor...
E15 Dropped from Appropriations Bill
In a years-long, ongoing policy battle, a provision to secure E15 was dropped at the last minute from the appropriations bill. On paper, the path forward looks clear, as the oil refiners’ association is now onboard with E15; however, there are still many other smaller mechanisms in the le...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 30 January)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Turkey’s barley imports in 2025/26 are forecasted to reach 1.7 MMT, up from only 150,000 MT in 2024/25. The increase is due to the expected 13 percent drought-related drop in barley production this year. Turkey’s impor...
E15 Dropped from Appropriations Bill
In a years-long, ongoing policy battle, a provision to secure E15 was dropped at the last minute from the appropriations bill. On paper, the path forward looks clear, as the oil refiners’ association is now onboard with E15; however, there are still many other smaller mechanisms in the le...
Water Wars: 2026 Edition
Water is the world’s most important commodity, but also its most underappreciated—until scarcity starts. Water scarcity runs in cycles, and reports of shortages, debates on policy, and conflicts about ownership and usage pop up every few years with the reliability and sameness of Fa...
North America
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2825/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.38/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6425/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $293.6/short ton, down $2.4...
Market Commentary: Get Out of Dodge Friday
Although the week was mixed, there was a convincing move lower on Friday. The mood spelled exit as all the major agricultural contracts closed lower. Even those trading the three major wheat contracts, who had mostly countered the bearish sensibilities elsewhere on the board in many of the prev...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle Inventory Report
USDA’s semi-annual cattle report was issued today. The inventory of all cattle and calves in the U.S. as of 1 January was 86,155,300 head, slightly below—or about 316,900 head fewer than—the 86,472,200 head on 1 January 2025. This year showed the seventh consecutive ann...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2825/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.38/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6425/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $293.6/short ton, down $2.4...
Market Commentary: Get Out of Dodge Friday
Although the week was mixed, there was a convincing move lower on Friday. The mood spelled exit as all the major agricultural contracts closed lower. Even those trading the three major wheat contracts, who had mostly countered the bearish sensibilities elsewhere on the board in many of the prev...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle Inventory Report
USDA’s semi-annual cattle report was issued today. The inventory of all cattle and calves in the U.S. as of 1 January was 86,155,300 head, slightly below—or about 316,900 head fewer than—the 86,472,200 head on 1 January 2025. This year showed the seventh consecutive ann...
Cracking the Egg Price Mystery
Egg prices have been through a volatile 18 months, rallying sharply in LH 2024 and into early 2025 as bird flu decimated the U.S. layer flock. In early 2025, the U.S. layer flock for table eggs specifically fell to at least a 10-year low, at 286.4 million birds, down about 16 percent from the 2...
South America
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 30 January)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Transportation and Export Report - 28 January 2026
Grain transportation was thrown into confusion this week as ice and low water levels on the Mississippi River System snarled barge traffic and caused a surge in CIF grain values. On the ocean freight markets, rising bunker prices and improved demand in the Atlantic drove dry-bulk markets higher...
Thailand Soy Tariffs Update
Thailand’s market is now officially reopened to soybean and soymeal imports as the government has resolved a lapse in tariff policy that caused import duties to default to prohibitively high levels earlier this month. On 27 January, the Thai Cabinet approved the continuation of its market...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 30 January)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Transportation and Export Report - 28 January 2026
Grain transportation was thrown into confusion this week as ice and low water levels on the Mississippi River System snarled barge traffic and caused a surge in CIF grain values. On the ocean freight markets, rising bunker prices and improved demand in the Atlantic drove dry-bulk markets higher...
Thailand Soy Tariffs Update
Thailand’s market is now officially reopened to soybean and soymeal imports as the government has resolved a lapse in tariff policy that caused import duties to default to prohibitively high levels earlier this month. On 27 January, the Thai Cabinet approved the continuation of its market...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
CORN As of today, 93 percent of the expected area has been planted, representing a year-on-year delay of more than five percentage points. Some late-planted fields may remain unseeded due to a lack of soil moisture. Rainfall remains absent, while persistently high temperatures are increasing cr...
Russia
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19–23 January 2026 The Russian grains market is volatile, showing bearish sentiments on the RUB export trade platform despite increased export prices, even with zero duty in place. The government woke up to the fact that, to remain competitive and make both the farm...
GI Chimera; Catch Bees with Honey; AI My Eye
GI Chimera The EU-Mercosur trade agreement has hit another stumbling block after the European Parliament asked the EU’s high court to first assess the text for its legality. Once that exercise is complete, Europe’s politicians promise plenty more hurdles to stymie agricultural impor...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12–16 January, 2026 The Russian grains market is slowly but steadily emerging from the extended holiday period. Extreme cold weather is complicating operations, but grain and oilseed receiving and loadings are continuing—albeit with delays—at Russia&rsqu...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19–23 January 2026 The Russian grains market is volatile, showing bearish sentiments on the RUB export trade platform despite increased export prices, even with zero duty in place. The government woke up to the fact that, to remain competitive and make both the farm...
GI Chimera; Catch Bees with Honey; AI My Eye
GI Chimera The EU-Mercosur trade agreement has hit another stumbling block after the European Parliament asked the EU’s high court to first assess the text for its legality. Once that exercise is complete, Europe’s politicians promise plenty more hurdles to stymie agricultural impor...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12–16 January, 2026 The Russian grains market is slowly but steadily emerging from the extended holiday period. Extreme cold weather is complicating operations, but grain and oilseed receiving and loadings are continuing—albeit with delays—at Russia&rsqu...
Greenland: More Tariffs on 1 February
Greenland is heating up in the latest news, and not due to global warming, but rather rising security concerns. President Trump said of Greenland, the semi-autonomous territory of Denmark, that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has been telling Denmark for 20 years that “you h...