USDA is expected to announce details in the next few weeks on its plan to encourage cattle herd expansion after Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins recently pledged to “expand access to working lands” and “develop risk mitigation tools.” These options will be relied on rather than offering direct payments to ranchers. But these options will likely be limited in short-term impact, because of the long timeframes for market effects. During the last expansion cycle, in 2016, producers bought heifers at high prices. In theory, higher prices should start herd expansion, but drought and high input prices are also factors. Over expansion can result, subsequently leading to a price decline. And with expensive heifers, and hi...

TAGS – Livestock, China, North America, Macroeconomics