Christmas Eve Policy Potpourri
Ship Subsidies: The SHIPS for America Act has been introduced in the U.S. Congress and is intended to boost the number of U.S. built ships. Currently, China builds over half the world’s ships, and over 90 percent are constructed in just three countries (China, South Korea, Japan). The U.S. buil...
Two Big Things; Trumpenomics
Two Big ThingsJust days before Christmas 2024, two big things happened that impact U.S. agriculture. On their way home for the holidays, members of the U.S. Congress passed a one-year extension of the farm bill. Farm groups were disappointed for a number of reasons, including the fact that expa...
Government Shutdown Averted; Process Provides Insights into 2025 Policy Making
A government shutdown was averted after frenetic eleventh-hour action last week in Congress to pass a continuing resolution, which is a short-term appropriations bill that extends the existing baseline level of funding. Under the terms of a previous CR passed on 25 September, the federal govern...
Farm Aid Revived; New Economy versus Old; UPF Discussion
Farm Aid RevivedThe latest Monthly Monitor of agricultural economists showed that 56 percent believe the sector is already in a recession and a whopping 81 percent believe it is on the brink of a recession. The government’s stopgap bill to keep the government funded through March included $10 b...
Sino-Ag Developments
EconomyLeaders gather this month for the annual Central Economic Work Conference with the view of another sub-par year ahead and the need for bold action to turn the economy around. Recent measures have included lowering the cash reserve requirements at banks so that more money is available for...
Transatlantic Dynamic; Doubling Down
Transatlantic DynamicThose in U.S. agricultural trade policy agree with Donald Trump that the EU treats America badly. The large U.S. agricultural trade deficit with the EU has been growing at a compound annual growth rate of over 6 percent. Since WWII, the U.S. has subsidized Europe’s se...
Dissecting the Retail Sales Report
Retail sales rose 0.7 percent in November; this was slightly higher than the consensus expectations. There are a few nuances to consider, however. First, the Thanksgiving holiday was late this year. The holiday is on the fourth Thursday of the month. Given the way the calendar played out in 202...
Tear it Up II; Splitting GM Wheat; DOFE
Tear it Up IICanada’s finance minister, Chrystia Freeland, resigned and President-elect Donald Trump is being blamed. That is an over-simplification and she appears to have run away from a fight. But her resignation raises the question of how Canada and Mexico will handle Mr. Trump. Both countr...
Lame Duck Docket: Appropriations, Farm Bill and Ag Related National Defense Authorization Provisions
As of today, Congress has four days until government funding expires, and 15 days to pass a farm bill extension before (31 December) permanent law goes into effect, which could have negative impacts on commodity markets. Lawmakers are still working to finalize a stopgap funding bill that w...
Trump’s War on American Agriculture
American agriculture is already facing a less affluent future. Commodity prices have softened, and South America now dominates the global export market. The U.S. share of global agricultural trade has fallen by two-thirds. Major importers have typically chafed under their dependence upon foreig...
Argentina’s Economy One Year after Milei
A look at Argentina’s fiscal and economic policy is instructive on two levels. First, understanding its impact for Argentina’s position in ag commodity trade, and second as a policy analog. President-elect Trump will create the new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) which will be part o...
Near-Term Beef and Cattle Market Outlook
The recent unexpected surge in physical fed cattle prices has created significant discussion about what the beef and cattle price environment will be heading into the new year. It’s no secret that fed cattle supplies remain tight and that the pipeline is low amid the ban on feeder cattle import...
Food Fight Ahead; UPF Boogeyman
Food Fight AheadThere are two committee confirmation hearings that aggies will be watching intently early next year: the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor & Pensions (HELP) on the nomination of RFK, Jr.; and the Senate Agriculture Committee on the nomination of Brooke Rollins. Th...
Hunger Games; Power of Deregulation
Hunger GamesDonald Trump’s Cabinet nominees are unconventional, far more so than in his first term as president. It could result in a shakeup of staid and static policy prescriptions, or it could amount to nothing more than a bunch of four-year-olds attempting to play soccer. The DNI nominee qu...
Sino-Ag Update
EconomyDeflation continues to be a problem with the Producer Price Index declining in November for the 26th month in a row. Consumer inflation was expected to increase 0.5 percent after rising 0.3 percent in October, but instead it rose by just 0.2 percent, a five-month low. Despite economic so...
New Leadership for Congressional Energy Committees
With the retirement from Congress of House Energy and Commerce (HEC) Committee chair Cathy McMorris Rogers (R-WA), the gavel was up for grabs in what is arguably the most powerful committee in the House. The third and fourth ranking Republicans, Representatives Bob Latta of Ohio and Brett Guthr...
Regulation Ruse; FTA’s Needed; Big is Bad
Regulation RuseFarmers in Europe oppose the recently completed free trade agreement with Mercosur, and have long prevented a transatlantic agreement with the U.S. They argue that their competitors in the Americas produce under less stringent environmental and labor standards. That may be true b...
EU’s Approach to Trump; Ignoring FTA’s; Laying the Trap
EU’s Approach to TrumpAs Europe’s economy founders under a tax and regulate approach, and its security becomes increasingly threatened by appeasement and inadequate defense spending, its leaders talk ready to get tough with Donald Trump. Some suggest preempting Trump tariffs by negotiating an e...
EU-Mercosur Fallout; Get Your Own; WTO Ignored
EU-Mercosur FalloutThe EU and Mercosur reached agreement on a quarter century effort to have a free trade agreement. Tariffs will be removed on over 90 percent of two-way trade. The agreement has further procedural hurdles to overcome. France leads an effort to construct a blocking minority of...
Squaring Budget and Taxes; Trade War; F&V Self-Destruction
Squaring Budget and TaxesU.S. agricultural spending could get squeezed between the incoming Trump Administration’s desire to extend tax cuts, which creates a $4 trillion budget hole, and reducing the size of government. The so-called Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) under Elon Musk an...
Sino-Ag Roundup 2
Meat DemandChina is the largest consumer of meat, consuming 27 percent of world supplies and while pork has been the dominate choice, poultry demand has been on the rise along with beef. Poultry is winning due to price and its health halo, and beef is viewed as a premium product. The result is...
Reorganizing in Congress – Potential Moves Among Aggies
Congress will return to Washington this week to kick off the post-election lame duck session of Congress. The docket is busy with only 12 joint legislative days left and government funding set to expire on 20 December. And the Farm Bill is set to expire on 31 December unless an extension can be...
Trade Abusers; Working Class Appeals; Healthy Elites
Trade AbusersThe West blames China for over-production but the global narrative is that China has embraced global trade and it is the U.S. that has become isolationist. This framing is disputed by Stewart Paterson at the Singapore-based Hinrich Foundation. He notes that trade flows show the opp...
God Given Right
Expectations and reality do not always match. This is especially true in rich democracies where citizens expect their voices to be heard, or else. This dynamic works most of the time, for most people, but not always with rational results. German statistician Ernst Engel noted that what people s...
Trump Tariffs Round Two – Canada and Mexico
In various social media posts, President-elect Trump last week announced his plans to implement a 25 percent tariff on all goods from Canada and Mexico, stating “… as one of my first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25 percent tariff on all pro...
Food versus Populism; Food in Perspective; Beauty of the Algorithm; Tariffs as Panacea
Food versus PopulismPresident-elect Donald Trump’s selection of RFK, Jr. to oversee a food system that he wants to remake without chemicals and ultra-processing, or mega farms, or seed oils, is going to be both fun and excruciating to watch. The sheer mass of the food-sector battleship should b...
Food’s Fools Gold
Correlation is not causation, but many nations focus their investments on agriculture due to idealizing food self-sufficiency. That can come at the expense of other investments that could prove more valuable. Egypt has made a concentrated effort to improve its food self-sufficiency but ha...
Happy Thanksgiving
U.S. financial markets are closed for the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, 28 November. Consequently, WPI’s offices will be closed as well and no issue of Ag Perspectives will be published. Ag Perspectives will resume Friday, 29 November. We wish everyone a happy holiday! ...
Sino-Ag Roundup
Trade WarDonald Trump hasn’t even been sworn into office and is already roiling currency markets. The yuan, Mexican peso and Canadian dollar all slid this week on Trump’s social media claim that he will add tariffs on these three countries unless they stem the flow of drugs and illegal aliens i...
USTR Nominee; Changing Eating Habits
USTR NomineeTariffs are President-Elect Trumps most repeated policy focus but his selection of the next U.S. Trade Representative came nearly last. At least Jamieson Greer is a somewhat known quantity. World Trade Online says, “Stakeholders see what they want to see in Greer as USTR.” Having se...
Channeling Hamilton; Gastronationalism Gone Awry; Science Reverts to Nonpartisan; Black Friday Deals
Channeling HamiltonAlexander Hamilton, the first U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, encouraged the Tariff Act of 1789, the Tariff Act of 1790, and the Tariff Act of 1792. He used tariffs to fund the government and protect domestic industries from British exports. President-elect Trump has pledged...
Anchor on U.S. Agricultural Exports
The U.S. dollar was already at a two-year high when President-Elect Donald Trump announced he would impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico over drugs and immigration. The Canadian dollar was at a four year low against the dollar and fell further. The peso also fell and is now at its weakest in ove...
Brooke Rollins: New Ag Secretary Pick
During the Presidential campaign, one topic on which Donad Trump was introspective was on his staff and cabinet appointments. He mentioned more than once on the campaign trail that getting the “right people” in jobs was one area in which he would focus the second time around. Typically Trump me...
Most Googled; Maladministration; Tough Love
Most GoogledOn Saturday, 23 November, the most Googled thing for those in U.S. agriculture policy circles was Brooke Rollins. Her name had not been amongst the 15 or so possible names mentioned in media reports to head USDA. A prominent name added to the list late last week was former U.S...
China-Brazil Bilateral at the G20 Summit: New Deals to Be Announced
The G20 meets in Rio de Janeiro this week, and Presidents Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva of Brazil and Xi Jinping of China have a bilateral side meeting on their respective calendars. The agenda is focused on promoting development strategies between China and Brazil.Brazil’s Ag Minister Carlos Fav...
Farm Bill Deficiencies; Transatlantic Tensions; GMO Correction
Farm Bill DeficienciesU.S. Senate Democrats have finally laid down their marker in a bicameral negotiation over a farm bill renewal. In it, Democrats conceded to a House Republican initiative to double spending on export promotion programs. However, they did not accept the Republican position t...
Christmas Eve Policy Potpourri
Ship Subsidies: The SHIPS for America Act has been introduced in the U.S. Congress and is intended to boost the number of U.S. built ships. Currently, China builds over half the world’s ships, and over 90 percent are constructed in just three countries (China, South Korea, Japan). The U.S. buil...
Two Big Things; Trumpenomics
Two Big ThingsJust days before Christmas 2024, two big things happened that impact U.S. agriculture. On their way home for the holidays, members of the U.S. Congress passed a one-year extension of the farm bill. Farm groups were disappointed for a number of reasons, including the fact that expa...
Government Shutdown Averted; Process Provides Insights into 2025 Policy Making
A government shutdown was averted after frenetic eleventh-hour action last week in Congress to pass a continuing resolution, which is a short-term appropriations bill that extends the existing baseline level of funding. Under the terms of a previous CR passed on 25 September, the federal govern...
Farm Aid Revived; New Economy versus Old; UPF Discussion
Farm Aid RevivedThe latest Monthly Monitor of agricultural economists showed that 56 percent believe the sector is already in a recession and a whopping 81 percent believe it is on the brink of a recession. The government’s stopgap bill to keep the government funded through March included $10 b...
Sino-Ag Developments
EconomyLeaders gather this month for the annual Central Economic Work Conference with the view of another sub-par year ahead and the need for bold action to turn the economy around. Recent measures have included lowering the cash reserve requirements at banks so that more money is available for...
Transatlantic Dynamic; Doubling Down
Transatlantic DynamicThose in U.S. agricultural trade policy agree with Donald Trump that the EU treats America badly. The large U.S. agricultural trade deficit with the EU has been growing at a compound annual growth rate of over 6 percent. Since WWII, the U.S. has subsidized Europe’s se...
Dissecting the Retail Sales Report
Retail sales rose 0.7 percent in November; this was slightly higher than the consensus expectations. There are a few nuances to consider, however. First, the Thanksgiving holiday was late this year. The holiday is on the fourth Thursday of the month. Given the way the calendar played out in 202...
Tear it Up II; Splitting GM Wheat; DOFE
Tear it Up IICanada’s finance minister, Chrystia Freeland, resigned and President-elect Donald Trump is being blamed. That is an over-simplification and she appears to have run away from a fight. But her resignation raises the question of how Canada and Mexico will handle Mr. Trump. Both countr...
Lame Duck Docket: Appropriations, Farm Bill and Ag Related National Defense Authorization Provisions
As of today, Congress has four days until government funding expires, and 15 days to pass a farm bill extension before (31 December) permanent law goes into effect, which could have negative impacts on commodity markets. Lawmakers are still working to finalize a stopgap funding bill that w...
Trump’s War on American Agriculture
American agriculture is already facing a less affluent future. Commodity prices have softened, and South America now dominates the global export market. The U.S. share of global agricultural trade has fallen by two-thirds. Major importers have typically chafed under their dependence upon foreig...
Argentina’s Economy One Year after Milei
A look at Argentina’s fiscal and economic policy is instructive on two levels. First, understanding its impact for Argentina’s position in ag commodity trade, and second as a policy analog. President-elect Trump will create the new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) which will be part o...
Near-Term Beef and Cattle Market Outlook
The recent unexpected surge in physical fed cattle prices has created significant discussion about what the beef and cattle price environment will be heading into the new year. It’s no secret that fed cattle supplies remain tight and that the pipeline is low amid the ban on feeder cattle import...
Food Fight Ahead; UPF Boogeyman
Food Fight AheadThere are two committee confirmation hearings that aggies will be watching intently early next year: the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor & Pensions (HELP) on the nomination of RFK, Jr.; and the Senate Agriculture Committee on the nomination of Brooke Rollins. Th...
Hunger Games; Power of Deregulation
Hunger GamesDonald Trump’s Cabinet nominees are unconventional, far more so than in his first term as president. It could result in a shakeup of staid and static policy prescriptions, or it could amount to nothing more than a bunch of four-year-olds attempting to play soccer. The DNI nominee qu...
Sino-Ag Update
EconomyDeflation continues to be a problem with the Producer Price Index declining in November for the 26th month in a row. Consumer inflation was expected to increase 0.5 percent after rising 0.3 percent in October, but instead it rose by just 0.2 percent, a five-month low. Despite economic so...
New Leadership for Congressional Energy Committees
With the retirement from Congress of House Energy and Commerce (HEC) Committee chair Cathy McMorris Rogers (R-WA), the gavel was up for grabs in what is arguably the most powerful committee in the House. The third and fourth ranking Republicans, Representatives Bob Latta of Ohio and Brett Guthr...
Regulation Ruse; FTA’s Needed; Big is Bad
Regulation RuseFarmers in Europe oppose the recently completed free trade agreement with Mercosur, and have long prevented a transatlantic agreement with the U.S. They argue that their competitors in the Americas produce under less stringent environmental and labor standards. That may be true b...
EU’s Approach to Trump; Ignoring FTA’s; Laying the Trap
EU’s Approach to TrumpAs Europe’s economy founders under a tax and regulate approach, and its security becomes increasingly threatened by appeasement and inadequate defense spending, its leaders talk ready to get tough with Donald Trump. Some suggest preempting Trump tariffs by negotiating an e...
EU-Mercosur Fallout; Get Your Own; WTO Ignored
EU-Mercosur FalloutThe EU and Mercosur reached agreement on a quarter century effort to have a free trade agreement. Tariffs will be removed on over 90 percent of two-way trade. The agreement has further procedural hurdles to overcome. France leads an effort to construct a blocking minority of...
Squaring Budget and Taxes; Trade War; F&V Self-Destruction
Squaring Budget and TaxesU.S. agricultural spending could get squeezed between the incoming Trump Administration’s desire to extend tax cuts, which creates a $4 trillion budget hole, and reducing the size of government. The so-called Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) under Elon Musk an...
Sino-Ag Roundup 2
Meat DemandChina is the largest consumer of meat, consuming 27 percent of world supplies and while pork has been the dominate choice, poultry demand has been on the rise along with beef. Poultry is winning due to price and its health halo, and beef is viewed as a premium product. The result is...
Reorganizing in Congress – Potential Moves Among Aggies
Congress will return to Washington this week to kick off the post-election lame duck session of Congress. The docket is busy with only 12 joint legislative days left and government funding set to expire on 20 December. And the Farm Bill is set to expire on 31 December unless an extension can be...
Trade Abusers; Working Class Appeals; Healthy Elites
Trade AbusersThe West blames China for over-production but the global narrative is that China has embraced global trade and it is the U.S. that has become isolationist. This framing is disputed by Stewart Paterson at the Singapore-based Hinrich Foundation. He notes that trade flows show the opp...
God Given Right
Expectations and reality do not always match. This is especially true in rich democracies where citizens expect their voices to be heard, or else. This dynamic works most of the time, for most people, but not always with rational results. German statistician Ernst Engel noted that what people s...
Trump Tariffs Round Two – Canada and Mexico
In various social media posts, President-elect Trump last week announced his plans to implement a 25 percent tariff on all goods from Canada and Mexico, stating “… as one of my first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25 percent tariff on all pro...
Food versus Populism; Food in Perspective; Beauty of the Algorithm; Tariffs as Panacea
Food versus PopulismPresident-elect Donald Trump’s selection of RFK, Jr. to oversee a food system that he wants to remake without chemicals and ultra-processing, or mega farms, or seed oils, is going to be both fun and excruciating to watch. The sheer mass of the food-sector battleship should b...
Food’s Fools Gold
Correlation is not causation, but many nations focus their investments on agriculture due to idealizing food self-sufficiency. That can come at the expense of other investments that could prove more valuable. Egypt has made a concentrated effort to improve its food self-sufficiency but ha...
Happy Thanksgiving
U.S. financial markets are closed for the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, 28 November. Consequently, WPI’s offices will be closed as well and no issue of Ag Perspectives will be published. Ag Perspectives will resume Friday, 29 November. We wish everyone a happy holiday! ...
Sino-Ag Roundup
Trade WarDonald Trump hasn’t even been sworn into office and is already roiling currency markets. The yuan, Mexican peso and Canadian dollar all slid this week on Trump’s social media claim that he will add tariffs on these three countries unless they stem the flow of drugs and illegal aliens i...
USTR Nominee; Changing Eating Habits
USTR NomineeTariffs are President-Elect Trumps most repeated policy focus but his selection of the next U.S. Trade Representative came nearly last. At least Jamieson Greer is a somewhat known quantity. World Trade Online says, “Stakeholders see what they want to see in Greer as USTR.” Having se...
Channeling Hamilton; Gastronationalism Gone Awry; Science Reverts to Nonpartisan; Black Friday Deals
Channeling HamiltonAlexander Hamilton, the first U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, encouraged the Tariff Act of 1789, the Tariff Act of 1790, and the Tariff Act of 1792. He used tariffs to fund the government and protect domestic industries from British exports. President-elect Trump has pledged...
Anchor on U.S. Agricultural Exports
The U.S. dollar was already at a two-year high when President-Elect Donald Trump announced he would impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico over drugs and immigration. The Canadian dollar was at a four year low against the dollar and fell further. The peso also fell and is now at its weakest in ove...
Brooke Rollins: New Ag Secretary Pick
During the Presidential campaign, one topic on which Donad Trump was introspective was on his staff and cabinet appointments. He mentioned more than once on the campaign trail that getting the “right people” in jobs was one area in which he would focus the second time around. Typically Trump me...
Most Googled; Maladministration; Tough Love
Most GoogledOn Saturday, 23 November, the most Googled thing for those in U.S. agriculture policy circles was Brooke Rollins. Her name had not been amongst the 15 or so possible names mentioned in media reports to head USDA. A prominent name added to the list late last week was former U.S...
China-Brazil Bilateral at the G20 Summit: New Deals to Be Announced
The G20 meets in Rio de Janeiro this week, and Presidents Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva of Brazil and Xi Jinping of China have a bilateral side meeting on their respective calendars. The agenda is focused on promoting development strategies between China and Brazil.Brazil’s Ag Minister Carlos Fav...
Farm Bill Deficiencies; Transatlantic Tensions; GMO Correction
Farm Bill DeficienciesU.S. Senate Democrats have finally laid down their marker in a bicameral negotiation over a farm bill renewal. In it, Democrats conceded to a House Republican initiative to double spending on export promotion programs. However, they did not accept the Republican position t...