Market Commentary: U.S.-China Talks Leave Markets Waiting for More
What You Need to Know Today: Headlines emerging from negotiations between President Trump and President Xi were relatively limited, with a more substantive announcement expected Monday. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer indicated that additional details related to agricultural trade cou...
Cow-Calf Market Outlook
The heat of summer is now transitioning into more moderate temperatures, and the next two months have the busiest marketing periods of the year for replacement cattle. Weather always influences the replacement cattle market, and the primary grain belt in the Southern Plains, where many cattle a...
Diesel Fuel Costs, One Acre at a Time
Key Takeaways: Diesel accounts for about 64 percent of U.S. farm fuel spending. For farmers, the pressing question is what a higher price adds to each field operation. Iowa farm diesel averaged $5.50/gallon in September, compared with the $2.89/gallon Iowa State assumed for its February machin...
Cold Storage Report Summary and Analysis
August 2026 total red meat and poultry stocks totaled 2.01 billion pounds, down 0.5 percent from July versus the typical 0.3 percent monthly decline, but 0.9 percent above August 2025 levels. Total red meat stocks rose 0.8 percent for the month despite typically declining 0.1 percent and were 8...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a slight net seller across agricultural markets for the second straight week, selling a net 3,200 contracts through Tuesday’s reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position to 1.017 million contracts. Despite the modest overall selling, soybeans and soyme...
Bad Ideas Redux
It’s often said that history doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes. If only humanity could stop repeating the worst parts of our historic verse. Politicians, again at the center of this week’s follies, have found a way to make old mistakes sound new: announce them at a pr...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 25 September)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Market Commentary: Markets Await Xi-Trump Meeting Outcome, Export Sales Disappoint
What You Need to Know Today: Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived at the White House today as part of a highly anticipated three-day visit to the United States, marking his first visit to Washington in eleven years. Trade is expected to feature prominently in discussions with President Trump,...
Livestock Round Up: Quick Hits – Elections, Beef Imports, Xi Meeting and ICE
Officials from the Trump Administration are reportedly considering rolling back the Administration’s beef import plan as there is a growing panic about the midterm elections. The proposal to reduce the 300,000 MT of beef imports – 100,000 MT for September – is being discussed...
The Farm at the Edge of the World: American Agriculture and a Global Reckoning
Key Takeaways: The United States shifted from a decades-long agricultural trade surplus to a growing deficit, reaching roughly forty-one to forty-four billion dollars in recent fiscal years, a structural change rather than a cyclical dip. Brazil has overtaken the United States as the leading s...
Market Commentary: The Devil Is in the Details
Markets have no shortage of headlines today, but the reaction depends on what sits underneath them. Strong economic growth comes with renewed inflation pressure. Higher crude inventories do little to solve tight diesel supplies. Rain is delaying one crop while helping another, and trade expecta...
DDGS Price Outlook Turns Bullish
Key Takeaways: DDGS prices have been pushing higher this summer as corn, soybean meal, and other feedstuff values have surged amid strong export demand and supply concerns. WPI’s models anticipate additional gains for DDGS values heading into early 2027, with FOB plant prices reach...
China’s Push for Corn Self-Sufficiency
Key Takeaways: China has made significant progress toward corn self-sufficiency, with production projected to reach a record 307.0 MMT in 2026/27 while imports have fallen sharply from their 29.5 MMT peak in 2020/21. Strengthening food security has become an important priority for China, with...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14–18 September 2026 The Russian grain market remained bearish during the second week of September, although the market is attempting to establish a bottom as trading is now dominated by new-crop supplies. Logistics remain a major factor. Farms and traders located b...
Market Commentary: Politics Drives Turnaround Tuesday
What You Need to Know Today: Cattle futures crashed on social media rumors that ICE raided one or possibly three fed cattle packing plants in Kansas Monday night or Tuesday morning. Operations at one plant have been disrupted and production curtailed. Outcomes for shipping via the Strait of Ho...
Soymeal Holds Its Value in an Oil-Driven Crush Market
Key Takeaways: The expansion of biofuel-driven soybean crushing was expected to increase soymeal supplies and pressure prices as soyoil became a larger driver of crush economics, but soymeal has instead retained considerable value. Strong domestic and global feed demand has helped absorb addit...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved to $176/head last week, up $19 from the prior week as the Choice cutout edged higher while fed cattle prices eased. The cutout rose to $376/cwt while fed cattle slipped to $222/cwt, modestly widening packer profits. Margins remain well above year-ago levels despite...
Fed’s Warsh Defies Trump on Short-Term Monetary Policy Move
Last week, the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage point to a target range of 3.75 to 4 percent. That was the first rate hike since mid-2023, and the vote was unanimous. President Trump, who nominated Kevin Warsh in March...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt is reported to be facing shipping delays for grain from Ukraine through Danube ports — delays could be as much as 26 days, according to reports. Ukraine has three ports on the Danube, but all vessels must transit the S...
Market Commentary: CBOT Posts Bullish Technical Day ahead of Trump-Xi Meeting
What You Need to Know Today: Grain markets were sharply higher overnight and through the day session as the concerning wet weather pattern persists over the Midwest. Grain traders – and soybean market players in particular – will be closely parsing both what is said and unsaid from...
Higher Interest Rates Put More Pressure on Farm Margins
Key Takeaways: Higher interest rates increase the cost of financing agricultural production, reducing farm margins without providing any corresponding increase in production or revenue. The financial impact of higher rates varies considerably by operation, with highly leveraged producers and t...
Senate Moves Farm Bill, but That May Be Not Enough
Last week, the Senate Ag Committee passed the farm bill on a party-line vote upon the return of Senators Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) and Tommy Tuberville (R-Alabama), who missed the vote on 6 August (see WPI coverage here) when it failed by a similar party-line vote, 10-11. Democrats held the...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 21 September)
Developer's Note 24 August 2026: WPI recently completed an exercise that updated the codebase for this app and solved some of the discrepancies between our five-year average calculation and USDA's. There are a few lingering cases where early (late) starts (finishes) to the crop cycle resu...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Corn Argentina’s 2026/27 corn planting has reached 11.1 percent of the projected 8.4 Mha, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, advancing 5.6 percentage points over the past week. Progress is concentrated in central-eastern Entre Ríos, where 58.3 percent of the in...
Market Commentary: U.S.-China Talks Leave Markets Waiting for More
What You Need to Know Today: Headlines emerging from negotiations between President Trump and President Xi were relatively limited, with a more substantive announcement expected Monday. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer indicated that additional details related to agricultural trade cou...
Cow-Calf Market Outlook
The heat of summer is now transitioning into more moderate temperatures, and the next two months have the busiest marketing periods of the year for replacement cattle. Weather always influences the replacement cattle market, and the primary grain belt in the Southern Plains, where many cattle a...
Diesel Fuel Costs, One Acre at a Time
Key Takeaways: Diesel accounts for about 64 percent of U.S. farm fuel spending. For farmers, the pressing question is what a higher price adds to each field operation. Iowa farm diesel averaged $5.50/gallon in September, compared with the $2.89/gallon Iowa State assumed for its February machin...
Cold Storage Report Summary and Analysis
August 2026 total red meat and poultry stocks totaled 2.01 billion pounds, down 0.5 percent from July versus the typical 0.3 percent monthly decline, but 0.9 percent above August 2025 levels. Total red meat stocks rose 0.8 percent for the month despite typically declining 0.1 percent and were 8...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a slight net seller across agricultural markets for the second straight week, selling a net 3,200 contracts through Tuesday’s reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position to 1.017 million contracts. Despite the modest overall selling, soybeans and soyme...
Bad Ideas Redux
It’s often said that history doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes. If only humanity could stop repeating the worst parts of our historic verse. Politicians, again at the center of this week’s follies, have found a way to make old mistakes sound new: announce them at a pr...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 25 September)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Market Commentary: Markets Await Xi-Trump Meeting Outcome, Export Sales Disappoint
What You Need to Know Today: Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived at the White House today as part of a highly anticipated three-day visit to the United States, marking his first visit to Washington in eleven years. Trade is expected to feature prominently in discussions with President Trump,...
Livestock Round Up: Quick Hits – Elections, Beef Imports, Xi Meeting and ICE
Officials from the Trump Administration are reportedly considering rolling back the Administration’s beef import plan as there is a growing panic about the midterm elections. The proposal to reduce the 300,000 MT of beef imports – 100,000 MT for September – is being discussed...
The Farm at the Edge of the World: American Agriculture and a Global Reckoning
Key Takeaways: The United States shifted from a decades-long agricultural trade surplus to a growing deficit, reaching roughly forty-one to forty-four billion dollars in recent fiscal years, a structural change rather than a cyclical dip. Brazil has overtaken the United States as the leading s...
Market Commentary: The Devil Is in the Details
Markets have no shortage of headlines today, but the reaction depends on what sits underneath them. Strong economic growth comes with renewed inflation pressure. Higher crude inventories do little to solve tight diesel supplies. Rain is delaying one crop while helping another, and trade expecta...
DDGS Price Outlook Turns Bullish
Key Takeaways: DDGS prices have been pushing higher this summer as corn, soybean meal, and other feedstuff values have surged amid strong export demand and supply concerns. WPI’s models anticipate additional gains for DDGS values heading into early 2027, with FOB plant prices reach...
China’s Push for Corn Self-Sufficiency
Key Takeaways: China has made significant progress toward corn self-sufficiency, with production projected to reach a record 307.0 MMT in 2026/27 while imports have fallen sharply from their 29.5 MMT peak in 2020/21. Strengthening food security has become an important priority for China, with...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14–18 September 2026 The Russian grain market remained bearish during the second week of September, although the market is attempting to establish a bottom as trading is now dominated by new-crop supplies. Logistics remain a major factor. Farms and traders located b...
Market Commentary: Politics Drives Turnaround Tuesday
What You Need to Know Today: Cattle futures crashed on social media rumors that ICE raided one or possibly three fed cattle packing plants in Kansas Monday night or Tuesday morning. Operations at one plant have been disrupted and production curtailed. Outcomes for shipping via the Strait of Ho...
Soymeal Holds Its Value in an Oil-Driven Crush Market
Key Takeaways: The expansion of biofuel-driven soybean crushing was expected to increase soymeal supplies and pressure prices as soyoil became a larger driver of crush economics, but soymeal has instead retained considerable value. Strong domestic and global feed demand has helped absorb addit...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved to $176/head last week, up $19 from the prior week as the Choice cutout edged higher while fed cattle prices eased. The cutout rose to $376/cwt while fed cattle slipped to $222/cwt, modestly widening packer profits. Margins remain well above year-ago levels despite...
Fed’s Warsh Defies Trump on Short-Term Monetary Policy Move
Last week, the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage point to a target range of 3.75 to 4 percent. That was the first rate hike since mid-2023, and the vote was unanimous. President Trump, who nominated Kevin Warsh in March...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt is reported to be facing shipping delays for grain from Ukraine through Danube ports — delays could be as much as 26 days, according to reports. Ukraine has three ports on the Danube, but all vessels must transit the S...
Market Commentary: CBOT Posts Bullish Technical Day ahead of Trump-Xi Meeting
What You Need to Know Today: Grain markets were sharply higher overnight and through the day session as the concerning wet weather pattern persists over the Midwest. Grain traders – and soybean market players in particular – will be closely parsing both what is said and unsaid from...
Higher Interest Rates Put More Pressure on Farm Margins
Key Takeaways: Higher interest rates increase the cost of financing agricultural production, reducing farm margins without providing any corresponding increase in production or revenue. The financial impact of higher rates varies considerably by operation, with highly leveraged producers and t...
Senate Moves Farm Bill, but That May Be Not Enough
Last week, the Senate Ag Committee passed the farm bill on a party-line vote upon the return of Senators Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) and Tommy Tuberville (R-Alabama), who missed the vote on 6 August (see WPI coverage here) when it failed by a similar party-line vote, 10-11. Democrats held the...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 21 September)
Developer's Note 24 August 2026: WPI recently completed an exercise that updated the codebase for this app and solved some of the discrepancies between our five-year average calculation and USDA's. There are a few lingering cases where early (late) starts (finishes) to the crop cycle resu...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Corn Argentina’s 2026/27 corn planting has reached 11.1 percent of the projected 8.4 Mha, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, advancing 5.6 percentage points over the past week. Progress is concentrated in central-eastern Entre Ríos, where 58.3 percent of the in...