Market Commentary: Caution About Supplies, Confidence in Demand
Although the soy complex and wheat opened lower, there was confidence in the corn number and by late morning most major contracts were in the green, aided by shorts that were selling at the end of the month to book profits. December HRS printed a new contract low today. There was high volume tr...
U.S. Labor Day Holiday
The U.S. will celebrate Labor Day on Monday, 1 September, and the U.S. markets as well as our office will be closed that day. The next Ag Perspectives will be published Tuesday, 2 September. ...
Brazil Retaliation to U.S. Tariffs
The Foreign Ministry of Brazil notified the U.S. today that it has directed its trade body, Camex, to investigate whether it can retaliate against the 50 percent tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration on several goods imported from Brazil. The investigation will conducted be under a law pa...
Identifying Mispricing in Ag Futures: Corn, Soybeans Offer Opportunity
Readers will likely be familiar with WPI’s work over the past month or so exploring mispricing opportunities in agricultural futures. WPI’s work in this area seeks to identify (for the major agricultural commodities) where along the forward curve current futures prices have the grea...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk freight markets continued to strengthen this week, this time with the Supramax and Panamax sectors in the lead. Improved grain demand off the U.S. East Coast and supported values, alongside stronger interest in coal from South America. Baltic coal demand was also said to be &ldqu...
Exceeding Expectations, Perhaps on a Thread
Commodity markets opened mostly in the red but managed a turnaround late in the session for corn, beans and wheat. There was not much fundamentally driving the market. Export sales were solid but there have been no new flash sales reports for several days. By contrast, equity markets opened mix...
U.S. and Canadian Livestock Inventories
Yesterday, NASS and Statistics Canada released the 1 July cattle inventory in the two countries. Combined, the inventory was 106.1 million head, which was down to 99 percent of 2023 (the USDA suspended the July inventory report in 2024 due to budget constraints) and down to 92.4 percent of 2020...
Market Commentary: Bears Control Grains while Bulls Dominate Livestock, but will the Trends Hold?
Trade in ag futures was a tale of two cities, with grains sinking into the red while the livestock markets rallied to fresh highs. Grains and oilseeds saw pressure from lackluster technical conditions and, for corn and wheat, expectations of ample domestic and global supplies. Soybeans saw weak...
Technology Impacts; Science and UPF’s; Perpetuating the Museum
Technology Impacts Technology is driving markets around the world, but not always in the same direction or with the same results. Today’s big story surrounded Nvidia, which met revenue expectations and exceeded projected earnings per share, but underwhelmed investors on data center sales...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 18 – 22 August 2025 The market continues following a bearish trend, mostly related to the peak of the harvest campaign and a surplus of freshly cut grains. The export market continues driving prices inside the country and while European Russia is focused on Azov Sea...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 27 August)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Firm on Trade Visit; Bullish Feedback Loop for Cattle
The CBOT saw early pressure develop after the USDA Crop Progress and Conditions report was more favorable than expected for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Despite some dryness and uneven weather over the past few weeks, conditions ratings were generally steady, and – surprisingly – in t...
Future of Tariffs
Some countries have reacted harshly to the tariffs imposed by President Trump, while other countries responded more mutedly or negotiated a settlement. Canada initially retaliated but has now unilaterally reversed some of its retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. after deeming them predominantly...
New World Screwworm Human Case
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Lebanon’s 2025 grain crops are expected to be much lower, as much as 25 percent lower for wheat, due to the drought and to local conflict. Rainfall is down by 50 percent in some areas while due to conflict many farmers were...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved for the third straight week, adding more than $100/head to profits on fresh record highs in the beef market. Margins are now around -$80/head, still very low by post-2010 standards but a sharp improvement from recent losses. The broad strength across beef markets &m...
Market Commentary: Technical Trade Drives CBOT as Markets Eye Yields, First Notice Day
Friday’s market fireworks faded a bit on Monday as traders took the opportunity to rest and reassess fundamentals. There were no particularly big news items over the weekend to drive a big swing in markets, which meant that a lull was almost bound to follow last week’s large moves i...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest advanced only 1.3 percent this week, reaching 96 percent complete nationwide. The final stretch is always slower, and this year the harvest could extend into September as recent rains further delay fieldwork in Buenos Aires province. Farmer selling has...
Protectionists’ Spin; Transatlantic Spin; India’s New Bed
Protectionists’ Spin U.S. President Donald Trump is vilified for statements that his critics say are blatantly untrue, but he is not alone in trying to frame messages to his favor. This past weekend, China’s Ambassador to the U.S. Xie Feng said that "It goes without saying that [Ame...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 25 August)
Update for 28 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where o...
Canada Exempts USMCA Products from Tariffs
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and President Trump had a telephone conversation last Thursday to discuss trade. By all accounts, the discussion was productive after top trade officials have been meeting for months with little to show. In late July, Trump signed an executive order increasin...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders paring back their slightly bearish combined bets across the ag space for the second straight week. The move came amid short covering in the soy complex and corn, where technical momentum turned higher. Funds are now essentially neutral acr...
Market Commentary: Some Odds, Some Ends, Some Notable Developments
Grain and oilseed contracts traded mixed to lower on Friday, torn between being over-weight against large yields, and under bought in the face of a late summer loss of moisture combined with a litany of potentially damaging disease outbreaks. The number of foliar diseases that have been s...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Report
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released today at 3 p.m. Total cattle on feed amounted to 10.9 million head, 98 percent of last year. Total placements were down 6 percent but were above the average pre-report estimate. Marketings were down 6 percent, in...
Market Commentary: Caution About Supplies, Confidence in Demand
Although the soy complex and wheat opened lower, there was confidence in the corn number and by late morning most major contracts were in the green, aided by shorts that were selling at the end of the month to book profits. December HRS printed a new contract low today. There was high volume tr...
U.S. Labor Day Holiday
The U.S. will celebrate Labor Day on Monday, 1 September, and the U.S. markets as well as our office will be closed that day. The next Ag Perspectives will be published Tuesday, 2 September. ...
Brazil Retaliation to U.S. Tariffs
The Foreign Ministry of Brazil notified the U.S. today that it has directed its trade body, Camex, to investigate whether it can retaliate against the 50 percent tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration on several goods imported from Brazil. The investigation will conducted be under a law pa...
Identifying Mispricing in Ag Futures: Corn, Soybeans Offer Opportunity
Readers will likely be familiar with WPI’s work over the past month or so exploring mispricing opportunities in agricultural futures. WPI’s work in this area seeks to identify (for the major agricultural commodities) where along the forward curve current futures prices have the grea...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk freight markets continued to strengthen this week, this time with the Supramax and Panamax sectors in the lead. Improved grain demand off the U.S. East Coast and supported values, alongside stronger interest in coal from South America. Baltic coal demand was also said to be &ldqu...
Exceeding Expectations, Perhaps on a Thread
Commodity markets opened mostly in the red but managed a turnaround late in the session for corn, beans and wheat. There was not much fundamentally driving the market. Export sales were solid but there have been no new flash sales reports for several days. By contrast, equity markets opened mix...
U.S. and Canadian Livestock Inventories
Yesterday, NASS and Statistics Canada released the 1 July cattle inventory in the two countries. Combined, the inventory was 106.1 million head, which was down to 99 percent of 2023 (the USDA suspended the July inventory report in 2024 due to budget constraints) and down to 92.4 percent of 2020...
Market Commentary: Bears Control Grains while Bulls Dominate Livestock, but will the Trends Hold?
Trade in ag futures was a tale of two cities, with grains sinking into the red while the livestock markets rallied to fresh highs. Grains and oilseeds saw pressure from lackluster technical conditions and, for corn and wheat, expectations of ample domestic and global supplies. Soybeans saw weak...
Technology Impacts; Science and UPF’s; Perpetuating the Museum
Technology Impacts Technology is driving markets around the world, but not always in the same direction or with the same results. Today’s big story surrounded Nvidia, which met revenue expectations and exceeded projected earnings per share, but underwhelmed investors on data center sales...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 18 – 22 August 2025 The market continues following a bearish trend, mostly related to the peak of the harvest campaign and a surplus of freshly cut grains. The export market continues driving prices inside the country and while European Russia is focused on Azov Sea...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 27 August)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Firm on Trade Visit; Bullish Feedback Loop for Cattle
The CBOT saw early pressure develop after the USDA Crop Progress and Conditions report was more favorable than expected for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Despite some dryness and uneven weather over the past few weeks, conditions ratings were generally steady, and – surprisingly – in t...
Future of Tariffs
Some countries have reacted harshly to the tariffs imposed by President Trump, while other countries responded more mutedly or negotiated a settlement. Canada initially retaliated but has now unilaterally reversed some of its retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. after deeming them predominantly...
New World Screwworm Human Case
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Lebanon’s 2025 grain crops are expected to be much lower, as much as 25 percent lower for wheat, due to the drought and to local conflict. Rainfall is down by 50 percent in some areas while due to conflict many farmers were...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved for the third straight week, adding more than $100/head to profits on fresh record highs in the beef market. Margins are now around -$80/head, still very low by post-2010 standards but a sharp improvement from recent losses. The broad strength across beef markets &m...
Market Commentary: Technical Trade Drives CBOT as Markets Eye Yields, First Notice Day
Friday’s market fireworks faded a bit on Monday as traders took the opportunity to rest and reassess fundamentals. There were no particularly big news items over the weekend to drive a big swing in markets, which meant that a lull was almost bound to follow last week’s large moves i...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest advanced only 1.3 percent this week, reaching 96 percent complete nationwide. The final stretch is always slower, and this year the harvest could extend into September as recent rains further delay fieldwork in Buenos Aires province. Farmer selling has...
Protectionists’ Spin; Transatlantic Spin; India’s New Bed
Protectionists’ Spin U.S. President Donald Trump is vilified for statements that his critics say are blatantly untrue, but he is not alone in trying to frame messages to his favor. This past weekend, China’s Ambassador to the U.S. Xie Feng said that "It goes without saying that [Ame...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 25 August)
Update for 28 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where o...
Canada Exempts USMCA Products from Tariffs
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and President Trump had a telephone conversation last Thursday to discuss trade. By all accounts, the discussion was productive after top trade officials have been meeting for months with little to show. In late July, Trump signed an executive order increasin...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders paring back their slightly bearish combined bets across the ag space for the second straight week. The move came amid short covering in the soy complex and corn, where technical momentum turned higher. Funds are now essentially neutral acr...
Market Commentary: Some Odds, Some Ends, Some Notable Developments
Grain and oilseed contracts traded mixed to lower on Friday, torn between being over-weight against large yields, and under bought in the face of a late summer loss of moisture combined with a litany of potentially damaging disease outbreaks. The number of foliar diseases that have been s...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Report
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released today at 3 p.m. Total cattle on feed amounted to 10.9 million head, 98 percent of last year. Total placements were down 6 percent but were above the average pre-report estimate. Marketings were down 6 percent, in...