Market Commentary: Bears Resist WASDE Curveballs
U.S. crop growing weather looks near perfect. Even dry parts of Nebraska and northern Illinois have just received good relief rains. The rest of July is cooler and damp, perfect for pollination. The share of the corn crop rated Good/Excellent is 74 percent, and its 66 percent for soybeans. ...
Hog and Pork Prices Set to Decline in Last-Half 2025
Lean hog futures surged to new contract highs over the past several weeks, followed by a correction in values that remains ongoing. Despite strong pork demand and reduced slaughter volumes and carcass weights, traders have been wary of the seasonal trend for prices to pull back in Q3 and Q4. WP...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Latest Tariff Threat on Brazil Expected to Hit Beef Prices
Brazil, a major ag exporter, significant player in the global economy, and founding member of the BRICS bloc, is now in President Trump’s crosshairs, receiving a “tariff letter” with the threat of 50 percent tariffs. Imports from Brazil to the U.S. have faced a minimum 1...
WPI Transportation Report
Dry Bulk Dry bulk markets continue to see diverging trends with the Capesize sector suffering under slack demand for iron ore, coal, and bauxite while Panamax and Supramax markets are higher on improved demand from the Atlantic and the East Coast of South America. Pacific markets have bee...
Market Commentary: Mostly Higher Ahead of Tomorrow’s WASDE
Wheat spent the session mostly higher while corn, soybeans, and soymeal bounced around treading lower but eking out gains later in the action. Part of this was position squaring ahead of tomorrow’s July WASDE report by USDA. It will be a bull/bear square off with any surprise to the bulli...
Livestock Roundup: Feds Sue California over Eggs
Yesterday, the federal government filed suit against California over Proposition 12’s effects on egg prices under the Egg Products Inspection Act of 1970, which sets standards to ensure eggs and egg products are properly labeled and packaged while preempting state law that imposes additio...
WPI 20225/26 Grain Outlook: Supplies Outpace Demand Growth
Heading into the USDA’s July WASDE report on Friday, WPI offers our outlook on the 2025/26 U.S. grain balance sheets and the season-average price. The big theme from this effort is that 2025/26 grain supplies will be ample and markets will have to move lower to stimulate enough demand to...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Break Support on Good Weather; Wheat, Corn Bounce off Lows
Weather is king right now for the grain markets and with no serious threat to the silking corn and pod-setting soybean crops, that meant lower trade at the CBOT. Soybeans bore the brunt of the selling for the day with the favorable weather forecast into early August suggesting the crop will set...
Trump’s Realpolitik; Tariff Reality; Farmer Gerontology
Trump’s Realpolitik Peter Thiel and others have said they backed Mr. Trump for the presidency not as ideal governance, but as a disruptor of a stagnant system, someone to clear out the sclerotic elites clinging to their benefits. The U.S. president and his realpolitik has prompted every n...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 9 July)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 June – 4 July 2025 During the first week of the new season 2025/26, seasonal price depreciation continued, however, delayed harvesting was helping wheat prices rebound in the south, the Russia’s main export hub. To add fuel to the fire, yields are lower com...
Market Commentary: Corn Hits New Lows while Cattle Hit New Highs
Grains markets came under pressure again on Tuesday with USDA’s positive Crop Conditions report Monday evening reassuring traders and analysts of excellent yield prospects for this year. The report was most bearish corn where ratings hit another five-year seasonal high as the crop is silk...
Tariffs and Geopolitics
Reactions to U.S. President Donald Trump and his trade policies are notably different for each country and are evolving. A Pew survey shows that 59 percent of Canadians see the U.S. as the “greatest threat” to the Great White North. However, most Americans do not really think about...
Trump Tariff Letters Issued
Over the weekend and yesterday, President Trump sent letters to 14 countries proposing new blanket rate tariffs to go into effect on 1 August unless a trade deal is reached. These tariffs would affect all imports beyond key sectoral tariffs already proposed. In the letters, Trump warned countri...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Syria reports that the wheat collected in the North/East region since 5 June is at 282,000 MT. The government adds that the wheat received this year is of lower quality due to low rainfall and high temperatures. Yemeni Houthi rebe...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins were positive for the second straight week with holiday grilling demand supporting the beef market and packer profits. Packers have done an incredible job managing margins this summer and in just three weeks swung from the deepest losses on record to well above breakev...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Monday’s delayed CFTC report showed managed money traders shifting from a neutral to a more bearish sentiment across the ag space. Funds added 63,000 contacts (360 percent) to their small net short across all ag futures last week and now hold a bearish position of 81,000 contracts short...
Market Commentary: Grains Sink on Ideal Weather; Cattle Rally Despite Feeder Imports Resuming
Grain markets gapped-lower on the Sunday night opening after a weekend of uneventful and favorable weather that was absent of any significant trade news. The weakness continued into the day session with corn and soybeans turning in the biggest losses for the day as the weather outlook continues...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 7 July)
Update for 28 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where o...
Trade Deadline Extended, Threats Sharpened; African Moves; WTO Reforms
Trade Deadline Extended, Threats Sharpened President Trump announced that the 9 July deadline for trade agreements with the U.S. to avoid reciprocal tariffs will be extended to 1 August. Eighteen countries are being targeted for trade negotiations, and a smaller subset received letters today on...
Skinny Farm Bill Left to Finish
President Trump said yesterday that the U.S. is nearing several new trade deals and that letters will be sent to trading partners by 9 July warning of increased tariffs set to take effect on 1 August. That announcement effectively extends the administration’s trade deadline from this week...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat planting now covers 78.2 percent of Argentina’s projected 6.7 million hectares after a weekly advance of 5.5 percentage points. Fieldwork slowed during the second half of June due to excess moisture from persistent rains, leaving progress 2.5 points behind the five-year...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Romania moved to extend its grain import licensing system for Ukrainian products through the end of 2025. The measure is intended to minimize price and oversupply pressure on Romania’s domestic markets but disrupts the free trade flows arranged in the EU framework earl...
Market Commentary: Mixed Day But a Strong Week, And More Ahead
It was the last trading day of a shorter trading week that provided lots of inputs. It started with the Acreage and Quarterly Stocks reports, which changed little but they did confirm expectations. Weather continues to point toward ample crop supplies. President Trump teased there is a trade de...
U.S. July Fourth Holiday
Please note that Ag Perspectives will not be published tomorrow, Friday, 4 July in observance of the Fourth of July holiday in the U.S. We will resume our normal report schedule on Monday 7 July...
Livestock Roundup: China Impact on Red Meat Markets
Pork export sales for the week ending 26 June slowed, following the large volume booked the previous week. However, in the last five weeks pork export sales have averaged over 30,000 MT per week. That is strong for this time of year. Outstanding pork sales at 202,497 MT are running about 10 per...
Market Commentary: Grain Bulls Emerge from Hibernation
Usually, one discusses bears - not bulls - emerging from hibernation, but the somewhat discongruous title of today's report is an accurate image of Wednesday's market activity. The CBOT turned sharply higher at mid-week with corn, the soy complex, wheat, and livestock futures all posting strong...
Vietnam Deal; EU Green Targets
Vietnam Deal As the 9 July deadline approaches, a second trade deal was announced by President Trump. He says the U.S. will apply a 20 percent tariff on imports from Vietnam (versus 46 percent reciprocal), and 40 percent if the product was transshipped. The duty could vary based on domestic con...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23 – 27 June 2025 Grain markets remained slightly bearish because harvesting is ongoing and traditionally with and excess of grains on the market, prices are bearish. However, the first cuts of wheat showed poor results and encouraged farmers to wait and see. The av...
Market Commentary: Cattle Retreat on Import News; Corn Posts New Lows on Midwest Rains
With the June Acreage and Grain Stocks reports past, the CBOT resumed trading its favorite variable for the peak of summer – weather. For Tuesday’s trade, this meant a focus on five-year highs in corn ratings and an excellent outlook for the crop into mid-July at least, which were t...
Feeder Cattle Import Update
As summer demand for beef is upon us, fed cattle hit $233 per cwt yesterday, having moved above $200 per cwt in April on tight supplies. The cattle herd as of 1 January was the smallest in more than 50 years, imports of feeder cattle from Mexico have been suspended due to the New World Screwwor...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt is closing several collection centers for this year’s wheat crop due to a drop in available wheat for purchase. At the end of last week, the total government purchases were at a little over 3.9 MMT against the governme...
Prop 12 Lives, Long Live Prop 12; Power of Ag; Trump Power
Prop 12 Lives, Long Live Prop 12 Delineating the Supremacy Clause of the U.S. Constitution from the rights of the states has long been a legal fight in the U.S. Thus, it was notable last night when the U.S. Senate voted 99-1 to remove language from the Big Beautiful Bill that would have restric...
Market Commentary: Bears Resist WASDE Curveballs
U.S. crop growing weather looks near perfect. Even dry parts of Nebraska and northern Illinois have just received good relief rains. The rest of July is cooler and damp, perfect for pollination. The share of the corn crop rated Good/Excellent is 74 percent, and its 66 percent for soybeans. ...
Hog and Pork Prices Set to Decline in Last-Half 2025
Lean hog futures surged to new contract highs over the past several weeks, followed by a correction in values that remains ongoing. Despite strong pork demand and reduced slaughter volumes and carcass weights, traders have been wary of the seasonal trend for prices to pull back in Q3 and Q4. WP...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Latest Tariff Threat on Brazil Expected to Hit Beef Prices
Brazil, a major ag exporter, significant player in the global economy, and founding member of the BRICS bloc, is now in President Trump’s crosshairs, receiving a “tariff letter” with the threat of 50 percent tariffs. Imports from Brazil to the U.S. have faced a minimum 1...
WPI Transportation Report
Dry Bulk Dry bulk markets continue to see diverging trends with the Capesize sector suffering under slack demand for iron ore, coal, and bauxite while Panamax and Supramax markets are higher on improved demand from the Atlantic and the East Coast of South America. Pacific markets have bee...
Market Commentary: Mostly Higher Ahead of Tomorrow’s WASDE
Wheat spent the session mostly higher while corn, soybeans, and soymeal bounced around treading lower but eking out gains later in the action. Part of this was position squaring ahead of tomorrow’s July WASDE report by USDA. It will be a bull/bear square off with any surprise to the bulli...
Livestock Roundup: Feds Sue California over Eggs
Yesterday, the federal government filed suit against California over Proposition 12’s effects on egg prices under the Egg Products Inspection Act of 1970, which sets standards to ensure eggs and egg products are properly labeled and packaged while preempting state law that imposes additio...
WPI 20225/26 Grain Outlook: Supplies Outpace Demand Growth
Heading into the USDA’s July WASDE report on Friday, WPI offers our outlook on the 2025/26 U.S. grain balance sheets and the season-average price. The big theme from this effort is that 2025/26 grain supplies will be ample and markets will have to move lower to stimulate enough demand to...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Break Support on Good Weather; Wheat, Corn Bounce off Lows
Weather is king right now for the grain markets and with no serious threat to the silking corn and pod-setting soybean crops, that meant lower trade at the CBOT. Soybeans bore the brunt of the selling for the day with the favorable weather forecast into early August suggesting the crop will set...
Trump’s Realpolitik; Tariff Reality; Farmer Gerontology
Trump’s Realpolitik Peter Thiel and others have said they backed Mr. Trump for the presidency not as ideal governance, but as a disruptor of a stagnant system, someone to clear out the sclerotic elites clinging to their benefits. The U.S. president and his realpolitik has prompted every n...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 9 July)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 June – 4 July 2025 During the first week of the new season 2025/26, seasonal price depreciation continued, however, delayed harvesting was helping wheat prices rebound in the south, the Russia’s main export hub. To add fuel to the fire, yields are lower com...
Market Commentary: Corn Hits New Lows while Cattle Hit New Highs
Grains markets came under pressure again on Tuesday with USDA’s positive Crop Conditions report Monday evening reassuring traders and analysts of excellent yield prospects for this year. The report was most bearish corn where ratings hit another five-year seasonal high as the crop is silk...
Tariffs and Geopolitics
Reactions to U.S. President Donald Trump and his trade policies are notably different for each country and are evolving. A Pew survey shows that 59 percent of Canadians see the U.S. as the “greatest threat” to the Great White North. However, most Americans do not really think about...
Trump Tariff Letters Issued
Over the weekend and yesterday, President Trump sent letters to 14 countries proposing new blanket rate tariffs to go into effect on 1 August unless a trade deal is reached. These tariffs would affect all imports beyond key sectoral tariffs already proposed. In the letters, Trump warned countri...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Syria reports that the wheat collected in the North/East region since 5 June is at 282,000 MT. The government adds that the wheat received this year is of lower quality due to low rainfall and high temperatures. Yemeni Houthi rebe...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins were positive for the second straight week with holiday grilling demand supporting the beef market and packer profits. Packers have done an incredible job managing margins this summer and in just three weeks swung from the deepest losses on record to well above breakev...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Monday’s delayed CFTC report showed managed money traders shifting from a neutral to a more bearish sentiment across the ag space. Funds added 63,000 contacts (360 percent) to their small net short across all ag futures last week and now hold a bearish position of 81,000 contracts short...
Market Commentary: Grains Sink on Ideal Weather; Cattle Rally Despite Feeder Imports Resuming
Grain markets gapped-lower on the Sunday night opening after a weekend of uneventful and favorable weather that was absent of any significant trade news. The weakness continued into the day session with corn and soybeans turning in the biggest losses for the day as the weather outlook continues...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 7 July)
Update for 28 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where o...
Trade Deadline Extended, Threats Sharpened; African Moves; WTO Reforms
Trade Deadline Extended, Threats Sharpened President Trump announced that the 9 July deadline for trade agreements with the U.S. to avoid reciprocal tariffs will be extended to 1 August. Eighteen countries are being targeted for trade negotiations, and a smaller subset received letters today on...
Skinny Farm Bill Left to Finish
President Trump said yesterday that the U.S. is nearing several new trade deals and that letters will be sent to trading partners by 9 July warning of increased tariffs set to take effect on 1 August. That announcement effectively extends the administration’s trade deadline from this week...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat planting now covers 78.2 percent of Argentina’s projected 6.7 million hectares after a weekly advance of 5.5 percentage points. Fieldwork slowed during the second half of June due to excess moisture from persistent rains, leaving progress 2.5 points behind the five-year...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Romania moved to extend its grain import licensing system for Ukrainian products through the end of 2025. The measure is intended to minimize price and oversupply pressure on Romania’s domestic markets but disrupts the free trade flows arranged in the EU framework earl...
Market Commentary: Mixed Day But a Strong Week, And More Ahead
It was the last trading day of a shorter trading week that provided lots of inputs. It started with the Acreage and Quarterly Stocks reports, which changed little but they did confirm expectations. Weather continues to point toward ample crop supplies. President Trump teased there is a trade de...
U.S. July Fourth Holiday
Please note that Ag Perspectives will not be published tomorrow, Friday, 4 July in observance of the Fourth of July holiday in the U.S. We will resume our normal report schedule on Monday 7 July...
Livestock Roundup: China Impact on Red Meat Markets
Pork export sales for the week ending 26 June slowed, following the large volume booked the previous week. However, in the last five weeks pork export sales have averaged over 30,000 MT per week. That is strong for this time of year. Outstanding pork sales at 202,497 MT are running about 10 per...
Market Commentary: Grain Bulls Emerge from Hibernation
Usually, one discusses bears - not bulls - emerging from hibernation, but the somewhat discongruous title of today's report is an accurate image of Wednesday's market activity. The CBOT turned sharply higher at mid-week with corn, the soy complex, wheat, and livestock futures all posting strong...
Vietnam Deal; EU Green Targets
Vietnam Deal As the 9 July deadline approaches, a second trade deal was announced by President Trump. He says the U.S. will apply a 20 percent tariff on imports from Vietnam (versus 46 percent reciprocal), and 40 percent if the product was transshipped. The duty could vary based on domestic con...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23 – 27 June 2025 Grain markets remained slightly bearish because harvesting is ongoing and traditionally with and excess of grains on the market, prices are bearish. However, the first cuts of wheat showed poor results and encouraged farmers to wait and see. The av...
Market Commentary: Cattle Retreat on Import News; Corn Posts New Lows on Midwest Rains
With the June Acreage and Grain Stocks reports past, the CBOT resumed trading its favorite variable for the peak of summer – weather. For Tuesday’s trade, this meant a focus on five-year highs in corn ratings and an excellent outlook for the crop into mid-July at least, which were t...
Feeder Cattle Import Update
As summer demand for beef is upon us, fed cattle hit $233 per cwt yesterday, having moved above $200 per cwt in April on tight supplies. The cattle herd as of 1 January was the smallest in more than 50 years, imports of feeder cattle from Mexico have been suspended due to the New World Screwwor...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt is closing several collection centers for this year’s wheat crop due to a drop in available wheat for purchase. At the end of last week, the total government purchases were at a little over 3.9 MMT against the governme...
Prop 12 Lives, Long Live Prop 12; Power of Ag; Trump Power
Prop 12 Lives, Long Live Prop 12 Delineating the Supremacy Clause of the U.S. Constitution from the rights of the states has long been a legal fight in the U.S. Thus, it was notable last night when the U.S. Senate voted 99-1 to remove language from the Big Beautiful Bill that would have restric...