The U.S. hog inventory on 1 June was 79.6 million head, up 5.2 percent from a year ago. The supply is likely to stay elevated through the rest of the year. As a result, hog prices are down 41 percent YoY. The elevated pork processing margin does not characterize profit but rather the difference between the hog acquisition price and the cutout value. The margin is declining as higher processing costs begin to subside. Still the herd greatly exceeds processing capacity.

The number of animals over 120 pounds is also elevated versus a year ago, and these animals are much more challenging to process into the retail cutout. However, moving the carcasses into export is relatively easier.

At the same time, Chinese pig prices are rising &ndash...