Now that USDA has released its June WASDE numbers and U.S. winter wheat production estimates, the markets will have suffer to find bullish news until the 28 June quarterly stocks report and planted acres update. Here's why.

We're finished talking about wet weather and delayed planting. We're approaching the gut slot of the hard red winter wheat harvest. There is no reason to believe there will be any surprises in export sales over the next several weeks. Drought fears are thing of the past. There is no heat in the extended 11- to 14-day forecasts.

So for at least the next two weeks, the market might well be talking about the "improving" crop conditions across the Corn Belt. The crops almost have no place to go but better. The v...