GOOD MORNING, Prices started the session mainly mixed but turning two-sided during the overnight hours. Funds were net sellers yesterday as prices chop back and forth. The funds are now estimated to have increased their wheat length to around 10K, while long 235K corn. Funds are estimated to be long 85K beans, 15K meal, and 60K soyoil. Weather patterns continue to be the same, with the western Corn Belt in dryness while the east continues to see mostly beneficial weather. Higher bean crop ratings this week keeps the bull off the mark, while traders feel that corn is moving through pollination successfully, at least in the south and the eastern Corn Belt. Beans: Slower crush rates and higher soyoi...
Macro: Trade Flows Set the Tone Persian Gulf crude flows appear to be improving, with anecdotal estimates suggesting as much as 7–8 million barrels per day may now be leaving the region — nearly double the mid-July pace. That helps explain why crude has not maintained the full geopo...
Key Takeaways: The Panama Canal traded at a record $5.3 million for a transit slot this week as line-up times extend to 17 days. The difficulties transiting the Canal are supporting the PNW/Gulf spread. Tanker freight markets remain elevated as the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz continues. I...
Key Takeaways: Ethanol margins continue to retreat from recent highs as rising costs – particularly corn and natural gas – offset gains in ethanol and DDGS values. WPI’s models expect ethanol margins to broadly follow their seasonal pattern, declining into the new year,...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.