World Perspectives

Anchor on U.S. Agricultural Exports

The U.S. dollar was already at a two-year high when President-Elect Donald Trump announced he would impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico over drugs and immigration. The Canadian dollar was at a four year low against the dollar and fell further. The peso also fell and is now at its weakest in over two years. Import restrictions promise to inflate U.S. prices and thus spur further Fed interest rate hikes, causing the dollar to appreciate further. But a strong dollar reduces the competitiveness of U.S. agricultural commodity exports. There is a moderate inverse correlation between U.S. farm exports and the real annual agricultural trade-weighted exchange rate of the dollar. The correlation can be better or worse depending on the commodity...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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