This morning USDA announced a 100 KMT soymeal sale to unknown and it highlights one of the few areas where U.S. market share in bulk commodities has been increasing, even if only slightly. U.S. soymeal exports have been rising (see graph below) and cumulative exports for the past 12 months are up 2.7 percent, year on year. This is somewhat surprising given Argentina’s historical use of the differential export tax, which incentivizes product exports like soymeal over soybean sales.

However, the reason for this growth has been flat to declining production of soybeans in Argentina. The U.S. and Brazil are growing more soybeans and exporting more meal as Argentina cedes market share. Argentina was expected to expand soybean production...