U.S. farmers are hurting financially from commodity prices that have been falling for half a dozen years and now exaggerated by the trade war with China. However, the volume of surplus wheat, corn and soybean stocks has had little correlation with the amount of farm labor employed (see graph below). This is in part because of countercyclical price and income policies, and now the Market Facilitation Program payments. However, the same cannot be said for the labor historically engaged in pricing and exporting what the farmers produce. Not just lower prices but lower volumes being shipped has caused intermediaries to pare down their workers in order to reduce losses. Moreover, Chinese state-owned companies like Cofco are capturing more of th...
What You Need to Know Today: Commodities were mostly lower across the board today after yesterday’s Federal Reserve meeting hinted at a potential interest rate hike later in 2026. The dollar index reached its highest level in over a year, and a strong dollar makes U.S. agricultural expor...
Tomorrow is the Juneteenth federal holiday, and the USDA, along with the rest of the federal government and the CME, will be closed, so the monthly Cattle on Feed report was released a day early. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity on 1 June amounted...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.