The fear of short traders being squeezed may create a temporary rally in the nearby corn and soybean contracts that is larger than recent fundamental data would imply is warranted. This scenario could occur because this season's abnormally strong basis means that long traders are far less intimidated by the prospect of delivery. In other words, because the cash price is higher than the futures price in many areas, end-users with long positions would have no complaints if they are delivered the more expensive cash product.Traders also should be aware that an unanticipated squeeze on any market is likely to result in increased margins. Increased margins can mean that traders are forced to juggle their position sizes, which would only add to...
What You Need to Know Today: Commodities were mostly lower across the board today after yesterday’s Federal Reserve meeting hinted at a potential interest rate hike later in 2026. The dollar index reached its highest level in over a year, and a strong dollar makes U.S. agricultural expor...
Tomorrow is the Juneteenth federal holiday, and the USDA, along with the rest of the federal government and the CME, will be closed, so the monthly Cattle on Feed report was released a day early. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity on 1 June amounted...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.