Yesterday’s record corn yield estimate really sealed the fate of the corn market for at least several months. Some significant crop problems in Brazil or Argentina will be needed to create any bullish enthusiasm. U.S. ending supplies are significant at almost 2.5 billion bushels. It would seem likely that funds will extend their record short position in corn futures and also plausible that additional weakness in corn will encourage them to sell more wheat. The soybean numbers weren’t bullish. In fact, it could be argued that since most thought the soybean yield would be reduced slightly, the fact it was left unchanged is also bearish. What happens next? Following are some thoughts:

Corn farmers should sell the carry into next...