USDA will release its semi-annual Cattle Inventory report on Monday estimating the herd size for all cattle and calves as of 1 January 2022. Pre-report expectations are that the cattle inventory will be 99 percent of last year, implying 92.5 million head – the smallest since 2017 and above the 2016 total of just under 92 million. 

The calf crop is estimated to be 99 percent of last year’s report. Based on the pre-report estimates, 2022 looks to be the third straight year of a declining cattle herd, and given the expected cow and replacement heifer estimates, that streak will continue into 2023 and maybe into 2024. As we noted last week, beef cow slaughter in 2021 had its largest annual growth by percent since 2017 and wa...