Macroeconomic Trends Just a War of Words? USDA’s March figures for U.S. agricultural exports to China, detailed in its 6 May data release, reflect a much different story than the heated trade war rhetoric would suggest. Those exports, excluding forest products, ethanol, biodiesel, distilled spirits and fish products, totaled 2.51 MMT. It was the highest volume for the month of March since 2015 when 2.94 MMT were shipped. At a total value of $1.325 billion, the average FOB price was $527.82/MT, the highest it has been since last June. In fact, that price showed an increase in each of the first three months of 2018.

Given the sharp discourse between the Trump administration and Beijing throughout the first quarter of 2018, the Marc...