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Cocoa Market Update: Prices Rise as Stocks Fall

At the end of July 2024, WPI published an article looking at the drivers of the cocoa market’s massive rally in 2023 and 2024 and that offered an outlook for MY 2024/25. This article offers a brief update on market conditions and developments that have occurred in the two months since our last analysis.   Short-Run Dynamics ICE cocoa futures have rallied sharply this week with the March contract up $669/MT amid tighter global stockpiles, currency dynamics, and West African cocoa production. ICE-monitored cocoa inventories in U.S. ports have been trending lower for the past 15 months and hit a 15-year low on Tuesday at 1.998 million bags. London cocoa futures also added to their gains this week when the British pounds slipp...

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Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONTurkey has revised its wheat import rules for flour millers – millers can now import up to 25 percent of their wheat supply, up from 15 percent. The remaining 75 percent must be purchased from TMO, the government’s grain company. The cha...

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European Market Analysis

Regional News On Monday morning, Russia announced that its 15 February – 30 June 2025 wheat export quota will be 10.6 MMT, slightly below the 11.0 MMT announced at the EEU meeting last month. Milling Wheat Global wheat markets continue to see pressure from slowing U.S. exports an...

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CFTC COT Report Analysis

The big surprise in the CFTC report was that funds, through Tuesday last week, did not exit as much of their long corn position as previously thought. Expectations were for funds to have pared that position back to about 125,000 contacts, instead they shed just 7,800 contracts (4.8 percent) and...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONTurkey has revised its wheat import rules for flour millers – millers can now import up to 25 percent of their wheat supply, up from 15 percent. The remaining 75 percent must be purchased from TMO, the government’s grain company. The cha...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News On Monday morning, Russia announced that its 15 February – 30 June 2025 wheat export quota will be 10.6 MMT, slightly below the 11.0 MMT announced at the EEU meeting last month. Milling Wheat Global wheat markets continue to see pressure from slowing U.S. exports an...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The big surprise in the CFTC report was that funds, through Tuesday last week, did not exit as much of their long corn position as previously thought. Expectations were for funds to have pared that position back to about 125,000 contacts, instead they shed just 7,800 contracts (4.8 percent) and...

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Market Commentary: Some Bouncing Off the Week’s Lows

Except for soyoil and SRW, the market provided a rebound today for the agricultural commodity markets. Most contracts reflected their overnight closes. Key points for today and the week include the following: New contract lows were printed this week in soybeans, soyoil, SRW, and HRS.  Only...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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