World Perspectives
softs

Cocoa: Will the Challenges of 2023 Continue into 2024?

Recently, WPI has received requests from a few clients to provide some analysis on the cocoa market.   Clearly, there is a reason for this request as cocoa prices have been exceptionally volatile and futures more than doubled over the nine months from August 2023 through April 2024. In this article, we first explore the basics of cocoa production (which we thought valuable given the infrequency with which we discuss the crop) and subsequently move into an analysis of what drove the recent price rally and the outlook for the 2024/25 crop.  Since this is a topic we cover infrequently, we’d appreciate your thoughts, especially if you want to see more (or less) information about cocoa and the other “softs” comm...

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Cocoa Market Outlook: Futures Overbought but Demand Rationing to Continue

The 2024/25 cocoa market outlook is dominated by production concerns and continuing tightness in global stocks-to-grindings levels. The latter point will likely keep futures and physical prices elevated as the market works to ration demand amid a fourth straight year of weak production from Wes...

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Cocoa Market Outlook: Futures Overbought but Demand Rationing to Continue

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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