Well! Those U.S. corn and soybean production estimates from USDA/NASS contained in yesterday's August WASDE provided another instance to show that we in the agricultural analytical fraternity are not nearly as smart as we think we are. Each year during the weeks prior to the anticipated August WASDE and NASS's first survey-based new crop corn and soybean yield and production estimates, members of the agricultural analytical fraternity pour over all of the weather data and forecasts, the weekly crop progress and condition reports, econometric yield modeling, reports from crop scouts, our own little crop tours and empirical testimony from farmers. We stir all of this together filtering it through our own experiences and biases. At the end o...