Back on 5 January 2012 we found our crystal ball that we had misplaced tucked in the back of a closet. We dusted it off, and looked to see what it had to say about the future during the year of 2012. As we are nearing the end of the year, it is appropriate that we look to see how accurate those predictions turned out to be. Herewith is a summary of early predictions for 2012 measured by what actually happened and how we grade them.

We forecast that the South American drought, then in its early stages, would continue through at least February and that soybean and corn production in Brazil and Argentina would be hurt. This would cause an increase in demand from the U.S. We said that "futures prices will rally, but will not come close to...