Perhaps exceeding the market’s expectations, USDA reduced the forecast for U.S. corn yield by 1.4 bushels/acre, resulting in a reduction in production and ending stocks, thus raising the season average price. It also reduced the export forecast by 50 million bushels. Below are the percentage terms:

Exports took a bigger hit, which likely reflects the change in the global corn trading pattern. Exports were less sensitive to price when the U.S. dominated global corn supplies, but over the past decade corn exports by Argentina and Brazil have tripled and those by Ukraine have more than doubled. The U.S. is now a much smaller share of the corn market competing against lower cost suppliers. The equation of price and exports had to chang...