Price and export market share should be correlated. In other words, lower cost producers should be able to expand their sales while higher cost sellers should see a decline in exports. With wheat, that may not be true. However, just looking at the farmgate value of wheat in the top exporting nations reveals a small negative correlation (-0.2) between cost of production and the change in export market share over the past five years. Russia is a relatively low-cost producer and has expanded its exports, but so has Canada, a relatively higher priced supplier. Turkey has grown export market share versus the decline in U.S. wheat exports despite being a higher cost producer. But then many believe Turkey is subsidizing exports, particularly with...

TAGS – Wheat, Australia, Black Sea, Europe, Middle East & Africa, North America