The theory is that USDA’s Crop Progress report ahead of a WASDE report should be indicative of changes in yield forecasts. In other words, an increase in the share of a planted crop being designated good/excellent (G/E) ahead of a WASDE report is more likely to increase the forecasted yield, and a lowering of the share categorized good/excellent is predictive of a possible lowering of forecasted yield in the next WASDE report. However, a review of this relationship in recent years indicates that the Crop Progress report has not been a good near-term predictor of changes in USDA’s forecasted yields. 2016: The Crop Progress report ahead of the June WASDE indicated improvements in the G/E ratio for corn and soybeans but there was...