Concerns about faltering U.S. dairy exports last year have now subsided as growth has returned to the sector. This despite:
production growth leveling off as increases in milk per cow do not offset the fall in the number of dairy farms;
an 18 percent rise in dairy futures over the past year; and
the USDA/Economic Research Service (ERS) trade-weighted exchange rate for dairy products running higher at 113-114 for the past three years.
ERS shows milk and dairy product prices rising in 2024, with just dry whey and butter prices softening in 2025. Cumulatively, U.S. dairy exports have not only kept pace with competitors but have had a slightly higher CAGR over the past decade, resulting in the share of global trade ris...
Key Takeaways: Demand and capacity decide where milk growth lands. Italian cheese is up 4.2 percent in 2026, and milk output is growing fastest in Kansas, South Dakota and Texas, where the new plants are located. Price spreads decide where the marginal milk goes. The Class IV premium over Clas...
Markets are caught between reasons to keep selling and reasons to take another look. Fund liquidation and renewed peace talks are pressuring grains, while fresh export business and some diesel relief offer encouragement. Corn recovered nearly 10 cents from its low to finish higher, while soybea...
Key Takeaways: President Trump announced $8 billion in additional agricultural assistance through the Harvest Fuel Relief Program, as USDA projects farm fuel and oil expenses will increase 28.8 percent in 2026. The package follows $12 billion in earlier relief, while government farm payments w...
