World Perspectives

Decoupling or Redirected; Take, Don’t Give

Decoupling or Redirected There is much academic debate over whether U.S.- China trade has been decoupled, or merely redirected with Chinese goods diverted through other countries such as Mexico and Thailand. Part of the problem is using correlation to assume causation. Researchers at Penn State (NBER Working Paper 31922) conclude that it is more complex. There is some diversion but they found that comparative advantage is at play more than the tariffs that Washington imposed on China. They also found that capital intensive goods were more adversely impacted than more agile products, and that countries that have increased their exports to the U.S. have concurrently increased their sales to other countries.  Meanwhile, China has begun...

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WPI Grain Transportation Report

Dry bulk freight markets rallied this week buyers extending coverage ahead of China’s Golden Week festival in 1-8 October. The rally came partly from an uptick in cargo demand but mostly from vessel supply disruptions stemming from the U.S. fees against Chinese vessels. This is causing Ch...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Calm, Confident, But Correct?

The trading before a major WSDE report always entails differing vibes. It is more volatile when there is wide variance in expectations, and more subdued when the mood is more sublime. This might count as the latter except where it wasn’t.   The volume trading corn, wheat and soy...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1975/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.215/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close.  Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.335/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $287.7/short ton, up $1.9 from...

WPI Grain Transportation Report

Dry bulk freight markets rallied this week buyers extending coverage ahead of China’s Golden Week festival in 1-8 October. The rally came partly from an uptick in cargo demand but mostly from vessel supply disruptions stemming from the U.S. fees against Chinese vessels. This is causing Ch...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Calm, Confident, But Correct?

The trading before a major WSDE report always entails differing vibes. It is more volatile when there is wide variance in expectations, and more subdued when the mood is more sublime. This might count as the latter except where it wasn’t.   The volume trading corn, wheat and soy...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1975/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.215/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close.  Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.335/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $287.7/short ton, up $1.9 from...

Livestock Roundup: Inflation Is Up

The CPI released this morning showed that August prices increased 0.4 percent and 2.9 percent over the last 12 months. For food at home, the index rose to 0.6 percent in August and for 0.3 percent for food away from home. The August data compares to a drop of -0.1 percent in July and 2.7 percen...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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