World Perspectives
feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Does Bias in CONAB’s Forecasts Imply Even Bigger Crops?

CONAB recently released its first forecasts for the 2025/26 corn, soybean, and wheat crops (among others) and pegged production for the first two at massive levels. The soybean crop was forecast at a record 177.6 MMT, up sharply from the prior year and easily the largest on record due to expanded area. The corn production outlook was pegged at 138.6 MMT, down 1 percent from the prior year as farmers switched some acres into soybeans, but still the second-largest crop in history.    While the production forecasts are already bearish enough for U.S. export and demand prospects, the patterns of CONAB’s forecast revisions are even more bearish. CONAB’s forecasts for soybean production have, over the past five years, genera...

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feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2175/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.025/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close.  Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1075/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $276.9/short ton, up $1 from y...

livestock

Livestock Roundup: Quick Hits – Feeder Cattle, Chicken Nuggets, China Hogs, Turkey and U.S. Brazil Trade Talks

Feeder Cattle Hit Record Highs: Feeder cattle contracts are trading at $382.725/cwt, a record high, including adjusted for inflation. The previous peak was $320 in today’s dollars. Futures across the board remain elevated, averaging about $380/cwt, an indication that tight supplies will l...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Trump Tweet Can’t Sustain Soyoil Rally; Corn Firms on Yield Concerns

President Trump’s tweet about possibly restricting used cooking oil imports from China and more yield concerns for Midwest corn crops created mixed trade at the CBOT Wednesday. Soyoil, corn, and soymeal all pushed higher in a combination of technical and fundamentally-driven trade with co...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2175/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.025/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close.  Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1075/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $276.9/short ton, up $1 from y...

livestock

Livestock Roundup: Quick Hits – Feeder Cattle, Chicken Nuggets, China Hogs, Turkey and U.S. Brazil Trade Talks

Feeder Cattle Hit Record Highs: Feeder cattle contracts are trading at $382.725/cwt, a record high, including adjusted for inflation. The previous peak was $320 in today’s dollars. Futures across the board remain elevated, averaging about $380/cwt, an indication that tight supplies will l...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Trump Tweet Can’t Sustain Soyoil Rally; Corn Firms on Yield Concerns

President Trump’s tweet about possibly restricting used cooking oil imports from China and more yield concerns for Midwest corn crops created mixed trade at the CBOT Wednesday. Soyoil, corn, and soymeal all pushed higher in a combination of technical and fundamentally-driven trade with co...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1675/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Wheat closed at $4.9875/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close.  Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.065/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $275.9/short ton, up $1.6 from y...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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