Chicago futures have major agricultural commodities at some of their weakest prices in years and yet exports do not seem to be responding to their appeal. In part this is because the U.S. dollar index has climbed from 88.67 in January 2018 to 102.82 on 18 March of this year – effectively a 16 percent increase in the export tax. However, the dollar alone does not explain the downbeat situation since competitive global demand is an even stronger component. Over the past five decades, the dollar has an average R2 of -0.43 but during years when the dollar is strong and global surplus stocks are concurrently, there is an outsized impact. In 1979, when global stocks were down 43 percent, U.S. corn exports soared despite the dollar. In 2012...
Key Takeaways: Dry bulk markets remain mixed with Capesize vessels seeing continued pressure from weaker demand while fixtures and rate strength gradually increases towards the smaller vessel classes. Tanker markets are pulling back from their recent highs as tonnage moves out of the Mid...
The Trump import plan for 300,000 MT of beef supplies used for ground beef, i.e., lean trim, from September through November has, according to Secretary Brooke Rollins, brought some relief to beef prices. The Executive Order states that the Secretary of Agriculture will analyze and review the m...
Key Takeaways: Texas illustrates the assumptions underlying the 2025 FMMO reform; Idaho exposes their limitations. The Southwest order blend (roughly 27 percent Class I, 32 percent Class III and 31 percent Class IV) exposes Texas producers to every lever USDA adjusted, with a near-neutral proj...
From WPI Consulting
Communicating importance of value-added products
Facing increasing pressure to quantify the value of export promotion efforts to investors, a U.S. industry organization retained WPI to develop a quantitative model that better communicated the importance of exports. The resulting model concluded that value-added meat exports contributed $0.45 cents per bushel to the price of corn, increasing support for that sector’s financial support of WPI’s client. In addition to serving the red meat industry with this type of analysis, WPI has generated similar deliverables for the U.S. soybean and poultry/egg industries.