In advance of USDA’s winter wheat acreage report on Friday, WPI has prepared early forecasts of 2018/19 crop planted area for the U.S. Given current market dynamics, it comes as no surprise that our research finds corn acres will increase at the expense of soybeans. Wheat area will increase slightly and take some area formerly occupied by soybeans, while cotton and barley area will decrease.  WPI’s methodology used seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) models to estimate each crop’s acreage while accounting for relationships between each crop (e.g., tradeoffs between corn and soybean area). Variables included in the model were harvest contract futures prices, cash prices for each crop, the ratio of various crop prices...

TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, Softs, North America