You would think that when supplies of corn and soybeans are headed to their tightest levels ever you would see strong basis levels. The opposite is true today. Certainly, the fact that corn and soybean harvests are underway is a major reason for the weakness in basis, but there are some other important reasons as well.

Harvests for every commodity are early this year. In fact, it isn't just early, it is extremely early. Spring wheat harvest that is normally completed in August was basically finished in July. The corn and soybean harvests in the Northern Plains already are actively underway, with moisture content in the soybeans as low as 8 percent and corn already at 20 percent or less. The weak basis isn't the result of farmers aggre...