World Perspectives

Early Release Version of USDA 2023-2032 Baseline Outlook

USDA publishes its long term 10-year outlook every year in February at the annual Ag Outlook Conference – the last was February 2022. The outlook is initially based on the October WASDE report, and it is then updated until released in February. Yesterday, the U.S. portion (i.e., no global forecasts) of the early release was issued. This preliminary outlook is based on modeling, but bakes in a few key assumptions based on where things are at the end of the crop year.

The forecast assumes much higher yields at 181.5 bushels per acre (bpa) in MY 2023/24, compared to 2022/23 yield of 171.9 bpa – about a 6 percent jump. That would boost the ending stocks to use back into double digits at 11.6 percent. The long-term trend for yield...

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