The January jobs report surprised to the upside, coming in at 172,000 new jobs, well above the consensus expectation of 68,000. However, the February report showed jobs falling by 86,000, far off the consensus expectation of a gain of 60,000. This loss was driven by education, leisure and hospitality, and healthcare. Some underlying factors included a nurses’ strike, which hit healthcare and led to a drop of 28,000 jobs. Moreover, frigid and snowy weather hit half of the country in February. Both should reverse in March. Taking the two months together, and including revisions, private payrolls increased by 30,000 per month. To be sure, a monthly gain of 30,000 jobs is on the weak end of the scale, but factoring in strict immigra...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.