The current El Nino will affect more than just U.S. grain and oilseed production, and those other developments can influence world market perspectives, which can suddenly impact global prices.

Warmer temperatures next week should create favorable growing conditions across the Corn Belt of the United States. Due to present soil moisture, corn and soybean crop condition ratings seem likely to maintain high levels right into the first of July. At that point, it would take a sudden blocking ridge to propel grain contracts into a weather-related rally. Such a development is presently not a threat, but it is not impossible. That event did occur in the midsummer of 1983, an El Nino year, and prospective yields did decline. However, the most sub...