Recent economic data is still less than conclusive on where the U.S. economy is headed. Last week’s job report came out strong. Payrolls were up 263,000 jobs and unemployment was at 3.5 percent, tied with the pre-pandemic lows, but the workforce participation rate in September was 62.3 percent, down from 62.4 percent in August, tied for the second highest of the year. That compares with a 63.1 percent yearly average in 2019, pre-pandemic; September 2019 was 63.2 percent. So, the workforce is still below pre-pandemic levels.

Those voluntarily leaving the marketplace for jobs among the unemployed was 15.9 percent, the highest in more than 30 years. People who dropped out of the job market and no longer actively looked for employment...