Key Takeaways: 

Ethanol margins continue to retreat from recent highs as rising costs – particularly corn and natural gas – offset gains in ethanol and DDGS values. WPI’s models expect ethanol margins to broadly follow their seasonal pattern, declining into the new year, with margins falling to -$0.13/gallon by mid-December. Weaker returns to ethanol production are not likely to materially damage corn demand or ethanol output, with WPI’s models calling for more corn use than EIA and USDA figures suggest. Biodiesel margins remain just shy of record highs as strong D4 RIN prices and near-record-high biodiesel prices support returns. Biodiesel remains vulnerable to political changes, with the industry responding t...