For the first three weeks of 2019, ethanol production dropped to 1.027 million barrels/day from 1.046 million barrels/day for Q4 2018 and was well below year-ago levels. For reference, the current pace of production would result in a total 15.75 billion gallons for the year, down from more than 16.04 billion gallons in 2018.

Ethanol mill margins were squeezed at the end of 2018 by cheaper crude and some bullishness in the corn market. Adding to the pressure on those margins, the small refinery exemptions (SREs) also reduced discretionary blending for the year. Production and profitability are following the seasonal pattern, which means a bearish outlook until the spring. According to the latest U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA...