What You Need to Know:
U.S. fertilizer production is highly concentrated, but concentration alone does not establish that producers are operating as a cartel. Imports introduce competition unevenly: they supply nearly all U.S. potash consumption but play much smaller roles in domestic ammonia and phosphate-rock markets. The Hormuz disruption briefly more than doubled global urea prices relative to their prewar average, but prices subsequently fell below that benchmark—evidence of a market responding to changing supply conditions. Illinois nitrogen prices declined more slowly than global wholesale prices. Inventory costs, transportation, contracts and seasonal demand may explain the lag, although limited competition could also contrib...
Key Takeaways: The U.S. herd is stabilizing, but growth remains modest. Total goat inventory rose 1 percent in 2026, while meat-goat numbers increased 2 percent, which is not enough to materially reduce import dependence. Domestic slaughter is rising from a low base. Commercial slaughter incre...
Given yesterday’s headlines, today’s market action may not be what many expected. The dollar is little changed, crude oil is pulling back and stocks are trading higher. Crude may be the biggest piece of today’s reversal. Saudi Arabia is offering additional crude to Asian buyer...
Key Takeaways: Managed money is holding more than one million net-long contracts across agricultural markets, with corn, soybeans, and soymeal all reaching record net-long positions in September. Fundamental concerns surrounding yields, supplies, and global availability have helped justify the...
