USDA’s dairy product price outlook was increased due to a decreasing cow herd. The forecast for the average number of milk cows in 2022 has been lowered by 15,000 head, to 9.405 million. However, the projected average yield per cow in 2022 was adjusted slightly higher, at 24,075 pounds per year. The net impact is a reduction of milk produced for the year of 300 million pounds – down about 0.1 percent – to 226.5 billion pounds. Though better than last year at the same time, the feed cost of production has steadily risen this year. The milk to feed ratio – which is the amount of feed equivalent to the all-milk price (on a pound per pound basis) has steadily dropped this year, fueling the cow culling...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.