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Food versus Fiber

A common debate about a decade ago was framed as food versus fuel; should crops traditionally used for food instead be converted into biofuel, especially during a food shortage. Opponents of biofuel may continue to argue in favor of only crops for food but there was also a forecast of declining cotton production. In the food versus fiber debate, cotton was forecast by some to be outbid when it came to land utilization. As with many long-range forecasts, the cotton loss prognosticators got it wrong. The global area planted to cotton has been volatile but remains well above the reduced scale forecasted by some. The world cotton stocks-to-use ratio has similarly been volatile but on trend, both harvested area and surplus stocks would be calle...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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