Last week’s WASDE report made several major changes in USDA’s forecasts for the soybean sector. The most important ones were related to the 25 percent tariff that China imposed on soybeans from the U.S. as a result of the trade dispute between the two countries. Because of that higher tariff, USDA lowered its forecasts for China’s soybean imports in 2018/19 from 103 MMT to 95 MMT and for U.S. soybean exports from 62.32 MMT to 55.52 MMT. In turn, this caused U.S. soybean ending stocks on 31 August 2019 to be increased from 10.48 MMT to 15.77 MMT. Where Will China Procure the Feed Protein Needed? USDA apparently determined that China will import very few soybeans in 2018/19. It is not clear whether that will be due...
What You Need to Know Today: Commodities were mostly lower across the board today after yesterday’s Federal Reserve meeting hinted at a potential interest rate hike later in 2026. The dollar index reached its highest level in over a year, and a strong dollar makes U.S. agricultural expor...
Tomorrow is the Juneteenth federal holiday, and the USDA, along with the rest of the federal government and the CME, will be closed, so the monthly Cattle on Feed report was released a day early. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity on 1 June amounted...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.