Real GDP grew at a 2 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2026, slightly below the consensus expectation of 2.3 percent but above the 0.5 percent growth in Q4 2025. The GDP number matches the average annualized pace of growth since the peak back in late 2007, right before the Financial Panic and recession of 2008-09, but has slipped behind the 12-month growth rate.

First, the positive news. Growth in Q1 was driven by a surge in business investment as companies continued to spend on the Artificial Intelligence (AI) buildout. This category, covering investment in equipment, commercial construction, and intellectual property, rose at a 10.4 percent pace, the fastest in nearly three years. Further, real consumer spending also contribute...