With fresh USDA data on crop production, quarterly stocks, winter wheat acreage, export sales and changes to supply/demand analyses all suspended by the government shutdown, guesswork has become temporarily respectable. While a great deal of that is being disseminated, very little of it is identified as guesswork by its sources. In the for-what-it-is-worth category, here are some of our own current guesses on these blocked topics as well as a few others. - The final U.S. 2018 corn production number will be around 14.520 billion bushels based on a yield of 177.5 bushels/acre (BPA), down a bit more than 100 million bushels and 1.4 BPA from the last USDA/NASS estimate. - The final U.S. soybean production number will be about 4.535 billion bu...
What You Need to Know Today: Russia rejected calls for a ceasefire in the Black Sea, including a proposal to halt attacks on civilian shipping that could help restore grain flows from Ukrainian ports. Tyson Foods announced plans to permanently close its Joslin, Illinois, beef processing facili...
The big news in the cattle markets yesterday was Tyson Foods’ move to close two more beef plants. One of them, the Joslin, Illinois, plant was shuttered immediately after the announcement. The other, in Eagle Mountain, Utah, is a case-ready plant that does not slaughter cattle. Tyson also...
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday. In July, the CPI rose 0.1 percent, seasonally adjusted, and rose 3.4 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. The index for all items less food and energy, or the “core” infla...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.