Hog Price “Hockey Stick” The impacts of African swine fever (ASF) in China are being felt in the hog market. Last week hog prices rebounded to their three-year average, charting out a classic “hockey stick.” The nearby futures contract closed yesterday at $81.325/cwt, up from the contract low of $52.5/cwt in mid-February. Given the volatile nature of the U.S.-China trade situation, the big question will be how long the highs will last.

The bullish turn in the hog market has had a dramatic effect in just two weeks, pulling up production margins.

As of 1 March, the Chinese hog and sow herds were estimated to be down 17 percent and 19 percent, respectively. China slaughters about 700 million head per year, so a 1...