Presidents Trump and Xi spoke last Friday about the Phase One trade agreement between the two countries. It appears that in early January, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will meet to sign the agreement. There remains a lot of uncertainty in the market as to how China can fulfill its promise to purchase $40 billion (or more) worth of U.S. ag commodities as part of this agreement. That sum is a significant increase over the approximately $24 billion it purchased in 2017 prior to the trade war. First, the reported deal is a two-year commitment, so the margin increase in imports would be $32 billion over two years (an average of $16 bill per year – which may be a little less in 2020 and...
Key Takeaways: Dry bulk markets remain mixed with Capesize vessels seeing continued pressure from weaker demand while fixtures and rate strength gradually increases towards the smaller vessel classes. Tanker markets are pulling back from their recent highs as tonnage moves out of the Mid...
The Trump import plan for 300,000 MT of beef supplies used for ground beef, i.e., lean trim, from September through November has, according to Secretary Brooke Rollins, brought some relief to beef prices. The Executive Order states that the Secretary of Agriculture will analyze and review the m...
Key Takeaways: Texas illustrates the assumptions underlying the 2025 FMMO reform; Idaho exposes their limitations. The Southwest order blend (roughly 27 percent Class I, 32 percent Class III and 31 percent Class IV) exposes Texas producers to every lever USDA adjusted, with a near-neutral proj...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.